Treasury's long-bond buybacks pulled the 30-year yield back to 5.18%. Bitcoin surged past $69,000 and Ether jumped 18% as roughly $1.4 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated. Walmart reports today before the CFTC lays out its crypto agenda at 1 p.m.
Treasury moved the bond market. Everything else followed.
The bigger move came in bonds, where Treasury's expanded buyback plan pulled long yields sharply off Tuesday's highs.
Asia carried the relief trade overnight.
South Korea's Kospi jumped 6%, with SK Hynix surging more than 12% after speeding up a 40 trillion won, or $28.7 billion, share buyback and cancellation plan. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.89% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.13%.
Three tests now matter.
Jobless claims land at 8:30 a.m. with 210,000 expected. The CFTC holds its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting at 1 p.m. Jackson Hole begins next week.
The Signal
Bonds moved first. Crypto followed. Stocks are still deciding how much of the relief they believe.
Wall Street Owns 88% — Yet Most Investors Don’t Know the Name
Institutions already control 88% of this little-known company.
BlackRock owns roughly 32 million shares. Vanguard owns about 48 million.
And management authorized a 40-million-share buyback.
One man believes Wall Street may see something Main Street has missed.
Treasury stepped into the long end after yields reached levels not seen in almost two decades.
The department will more than double buybacks in the 10-to-20 and 20-to-30-year parts of the curve. The 30-year yield fell from Tuesday's 5.337% to about 5.18%. The 10-year dropped to roughly 4.63%.
Hours earlier, the Fed minutes sent the opposite message. Officials held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, with three policymakers dissenting for a hike. But the hawkish tilt ran deeper. Many participants said tighter policy could be needed if inflation failed to cool. Core PCE was still running at 3.4% in May.
The minutes read hawkish. The bond market traded dovish anyway.
That is the split heading toward Jackson Hole. The Fed is keeping another hike alive. Treasury is trying to lower stress in the part of the curve where government borrowing, AI financing and higher term premiums have pushed yields higher.
Macro Signal
A Treasury buyback moved yields more than a Fed hold did. Kevin Warsh now has a week to explain why the market should listen to the minutes instead.
Oil kept moving in the other direction.
Trump says there are no active negotiations with Tehran. He also says the Strait is open and its mines have been cleared. Iran disputes that account, and shipping behavior does too.
Vessel traffic remains far below normal. Several ships have been attacked this month, while three China-linked supertankers reportedly turned back instead of risking passage through Hormuz.
That matters because Treasury can lower long yields for a session. It cannot lower the energy costs feeding the Fed's inflation concerns.
Energy Signal
Washington says Hormuz is open. Ships are still avoiding it. The traffic count matters more than the claim.
New: Hit Your Retirement Income Goal With 10X Less Money
Financial advisors say you need $1.5M to generate $5,000/month. A revolutionary new investment does it with potentially $150,000.
Kelly G: "I updated my spreadsheet and it seems illegal. The income keeps growing."
Transform non-dividend stocks like Apple and Tesla into monthly income machines. Bloomberg reports they're "entering a golden era."
Simple as buying a stock.
Walmart (WMT) missed the key consumer read.
U.S. same-store sales rose 2.6%, below the 3.8% expected, while average ticket slowed to 1.1% from 3.1% a year ago. Shares fell 6% premarket. Management still raised fiscal 2027 guidance, with net sales now seen up 4% to 5% and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87. E-commerce rose 24%, Walmart Connect advertising jumped 43%, and grocery grew mid-single digits, but general merchandise stayed soft. Tariff refunds also helped operating income, and Walmart said it will use them to keep lowering prices.
Home Depot (HD) set the pattern Tuesday. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the strongest result since 2022, and adjusted EPS reached $4.92. Management still kept its full-year outlook unchanged as high rates and uncertainty kept customers away from larger renovation projects.
SK Hynix adds another side to the capital story. Its accelerated 40 trillion won buyback and cancellation program helped shares surge more than 12% overnight. The company now targets shareholder returns above 50% of cumulative free cash flow through 2027 while continuing to fund new AI capacity.
Capital Signal
Retailers are beating without getting more confident. Chipmakers are spending on AI while returning capital. Both trades still depend on the cost of money staying under control.
Crypto turned Treasury's bond relief into a squeeze.
Bitcoin surged above $69,100 after briefly approaching $69,900, gaining almost 8% on the day and roughly 9% for the week. The move covered more than $5,700 from Wednesday's low near $64,100 and helped liquidate roughly $1.4 billion in short positions.
Ether moved harder, jumping 18% in 24 hours to above $2,250 and taking its weekly gain near 20%.
Hyperliquid added a policy catalyst. HYPE surged 19% to just under $70 after Trump said CFTC Chair Mike Selig is working on a path to bring the perpetuals platform onshore in a "fully compliant and legal" way.
The comments came during a White House meeting with executives from Coinbase (COIN), Ripple, Gemini and Chainlink Labs. Selig is expected to give more detail today when the CFTC holds its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, with crypto and prediction markets both on the agenda.
The rally was broad because the catalyst was broad. Treasury lowered long yields, shorts were trapped, and Washington gave crypto another regulatory headline at the same time.
The Verdict
Treasury bought bonds. Crypto bought the relief. The CFTC now has to show whether Hyperliquid's U.S. path is real policy or just a headline.
World's Largest Investors Are Moving Their Money (Not Into AI)
While the media distracts you with stories about the next big AI IPO... The world's largest investors are moving their money into one asset – at the fastest pace in a generation. This asset has crushed the S&P 500's return over the past 12 months… More than TRIPLED the S&P 500's return in 2025… and has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 25 years by more than 1,100 percentage points. According to one Wall Street veteran, with over 40 years of professional investing experience… the biggest gains could be still ahead. That's why he's urging you to make one money move now.
This ad is sent on behalf of Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201. If you would like to optout from receiving offers from Stansberry Research please click here.
Thursday starts with one move showing up across several markets.
Treasury expanded long-bond buybacks and pulled the 30-year from 5.337% to about 5.18%. Bitcoin broke $69,000. Ether jumped 18%. Asian chip stocks rebounded.
The Fed minutes said tighter policy could still be needed. Oil near $92 gives that warning weight. Yet markets traded the liquidity action, not the policy language.
Walmart now tests whether the consumer can do more than hold steady. The CFTC then tests whether Washington can turn its crypto promises into an actual onshore framework.
Jackson Hole comes next week.
Warsh has to reconcile a Fed that sounds hawkish with a Treasury that just gave markets exactly the rate relief they wanted.