Bitcoin spent the night in a $1,000 range near $82,000, before and after the Fed chair declined to signal his next move. Fund flows show institutions waiting on bitcoin and still leaving ether.
A day after the biggest jump in U.S. producer prices since 2022, crypto investors are mostly watching. The fund-flow data say so more clearly than prices do.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in a net $5.1 million on Thursday, according to fund-flow data, after losing $261.4 million on Wednesday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust gathered $16.8 million, while Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust lost $7.6 million and Invesco Galaxy's bitcoin fund $4.1 million.
Spot ether funds lost $60.3 million, their second straight day of withdrawals after $129.5 million left on Wednesday. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust accounted for $44.4 million of the outflow and Grayscale's original ether fund for $18.3 million.
A narrow night
Bitcoin was near $82,250 at about 4:45 a.m. Eastern on Friday. From Thursday afternoon through early Friday it traded between about $81,580 and $82,530, a range of less than $1,000. That calm followed a brief break of the $80,000 level on Thursday morning, when bitcoin touched about $79,700 after the producer-price report.
Ether was near $2,459, below its 50-day average of about $2,554. Bitcoin, by contrast, holds a cushion of roughly $1,000 over its 50-day average of about $81,225.
The Fed said nothing
The quiet followed a non-event. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking Friday in Bangkok, declined to say what the central bank will do at its Oct. 27-28 meeting. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said. Prediction-market pricing of an October rate increase fell sharply overnight, but bitcoin did not respond in kind.
With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout on Saturday, there is no scheduled policy communication to break the stalemate until the decision itself.
Reading the flows
A $5.1 million inflow is effectively flat for a group of funds that can move hundreds of millions of dollars a day. After Wednesday's large outflow, it suggests institutions stopped selling but did not start buying.
Ether is a different story. Two straight days of withdrawals, concentrated in the largest fund, alongside a price below its 50-day average, point to continued de-risking rather than a pause.
Market implications
One reading is constructive. Bitcoin quickly reclaimed $80,000 after a brief dip on a hot inflation print and trades above its 50-day average, all without a supportive word from the Fed.
A second reading is cautious. ETF demand has stalled, ether is losing money to withdrawals, and the October meeting remains a live risk. If the Fed raises rates, an $80,000 level that was breached only briefly on Thursday would face a sterner test.
A weekly bitcoin options expiry passed early Friday; the larger monthly expiry is Oct. 30. Separately, Thailand's rules allowing locally listed bitcoin and ether ETFs take effect Friday, though no product had been announced as of last week.
What to watch
The next few days of ETF flow data, whether ether can reclaim its 50-day average, and whether $80,000 holds as a floor. A run of ether outflows into the FOMC would suggest institutions are cutting crypto exposure ahead of the decision rather than waiting it out.