Constellation Brands, RPM International, Worthington Steel and Lamb Weston report first. Energy costs are the backdrop: diesel futures rose 2.5% on Monday even as Saudi Arabia cut crude prices to Asia.
The third-quarter reporting season opens on Tuesday with four companies that rarely lead market narratives but sit close to the costs that are now driving them.
Constellation Brands is expected to report adjusted earnings of $3.55 a share on revenue of about $2.54 billion. RPM International, the coatings and sealants maker, is expected to earn $1.95 a share on $2.22 billion of sales. Worthington Steel is seen at $0.92 a share on $2.01 billion, and Lamb Weston at about $0.59 a share on $1.65 billion. Later in the week, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines add consumer staples and airline exposure to the calendar.
No large U.S. company reported before Monday's open, leaving the first read on the quarter to Tuesday's group.
Why fuel will dominate the calls
The common thread is energy. Brent crude traded near $102.50 a barrel early Monday. Heating oil futures, a proxy for diesel, rose 2.53% to $4.615 a gallon on Monday even as crude itself barely moved.
That gap matters more to this week's reporters than the crude price does. Beer, frozen potatoes and steel all travel by truck, and diesel is the fuel that moves them. Petrochemical feedstocks shape RPM's raw material costs. Delta's largest variable expense after labor is jet fuel, which tracks refined product prices rather than crude.
The divergence between crude and products has a supply explanation. Saudi Aramco has cut its November price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $3 a barrel, while raising prices to Northwest Europe. At the same time, Middle Eastern diesel exports are running at roughly a quarter of their level before the conflict, keeping refined fuels scarce even as crude flows recover.
What investors will listen for
For companies reporting quarters that ended in August or September, the costs already incurred matter less than the guidance. Investors will listen for whether managements are assuming current diesel prices persist into the holiday quarter, and whether they have the pricing power to pass them on.
That is a harder question in a weakening labor market. September payrolls rose by just 29,000 and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, which leaves consumer-facing companies like Constellation and Lamb Weston with less room to raise prices without losing volume.
Beyond the U.S. calendar
Schneider Electric has brought forward its third-quarter revenue release to Oct. 16, after announcing its agreement to buy PTC. The release will be the first look at the base business of a company that just committed to a two-year buyback pause.
What to watch: Freight and fuel commentary from Constellation and Lamb Weston on Tuesday, and whether any of the four lowers full-year guidance. A cluster of cuts that cite transport costs would be the first evidence that the diesel squeeze is reaching corporate margins.