Markets reopen Tuesday for a four-session sprint into CPI. PPI and the ECB land Thursday. CPI gets the final word Friday. Then come the CLARITY vote and FOMC next week. Bitcoin enters near $81,000 with oil above $95.
Last week crypto traded on somebody else's data.
Core CPI printed 0.3% when 0.2% was the forecast. The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.95%. Bitcoin slid all week and never got its own explanation.
This week it gets a vote.
The Senate holds a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act Tuesday. The Fed decides Wednesday. The Bank of Japan decides Thursday night Eastern. Three policy answers in four days. Only one of them is about crypto. The other two set what crypto costs to hold.
Monday is empty. Bill auctions and nothing else.
No crypto-exposed company reports this week. The calendar belongs to policymakers.
Here are the six questions that matter most.
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Does the Fed Confirm What the Bond Market Already Did?
The Fed decides Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. New projections land with it. Chair Kevin Warsh takes questions half an hour later. Retail sales for August arrive that same morning at 8:30.
Yields moved before the data did. The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.95%, up roughly 15 basis points across three sessions. The 30-year closed at 5.37%.
As of Friday morning, rate futures and prediction markets put the odds of an increase between roughly 60% and 70%, depending on the measure. That band is wide, and the spread between measures is itself a signal.
The projections may matter more than the decision. The last set still described rates drifting lower over the following two years.
Crypto equities sit closest to that call. Coinbase (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) trade against the same curve the Fed moves Wednesday.
What to Watch
A hike with a lowered path is a different outcome for crypto than a hike with a raised one. The first reads as a response to an oil shock. The second says the Fed has changed its mind about where rates settle, which changes the cost of holding a non-yielding asset for years, not for one meeting.
Does the CLARITY Act Clear 60 Votes Tuesday?
The Senate takes a cloture vote Tuesday on the motion to proceed. Sixty votes are needed, and clearing that bar only starts formal debate.
The bill passed the House 294 to 134 in July 2025 and came out of Senate Banking 15 to 9 in May. Two Democrats who voted it out of committee said that did not guarantee their support on the floor while ethics provisions covering officials' crypto ties stay unresolved.
Prediction markets put its chance of becoming law this year near 24% as of Wednesday.
Even a successful vote leaves a final floor vote, a reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture version and a signature still ahead.
What to Watch
Failure hands the federal-versus-state question back to the appeals courts, where the rulings already conflict. Success delivers floor time rather than a law, which is still more than the calendar has offered this bill all year.
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Do the Fund Outflows Break in a Decision Week?
Spot bitcoin funds have now run three straight outflow days, the most recent near $283 million. XRP funds ran three straight inflow days over the same stretch, and XRP still finished the week down the most of the three.
This one answers itself daily, without a scheduled release.
The test is narrow. Flows turning positive before Wednesday would suggest the selling was positioning ahead of a decision. Flows still leaving after Wednesday would suggest something slower.
One caution carries over from last week. Fund flows describe one channel of buyers. They are not a measure of everything trading.
What to Watch
A single green day proves little. A second and third, across more than one issuer, would be the first real evidence the selling was about the meeting rather than the asset.
Does Liquid Reopen, and Do the 598 Coins Come Back?
Blockstream's Liquid Network is producing empty blocks. Peg-in and peg-out stay suspended, so bitcoin held on the sidechain cannot move back to the main chain.
Roughly 598 bitcoin, near $46 million, is still with the party that took it. That party calls the sum a bounty. Blockstream calls it theft.
A security group that identifies itself as Bitcoin Red Team claims it flagged the flaw to Blockstream beforehand. Blockstream has not responded to that claim, and no independent party has confirmed it.
None of this carries a date, which is the problem. Three things resolve on their own schedule. When the pegs reopen. Whether the coins return. Whether the warning claim holds up.
What to Watch
Reopened pegs with the 598 still missing would be a partial fix. The sidechain would work again and the reserve gap would stay open. That is a usable network and an unfinished story.
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Does a Second Central Bank Move the Same Week?
The Bank of Japan meets September 17 and 18, announcing during Thursday night Eastern. Japan's August inflation lands hours before it.
Two major central banks decide inside one week. The U.S. long end already sits at multi-year highs, with the 30-year at 5.37%. That is the yield a coupon-free asset competes against.
Whether a decision in Tokyo reaches that number is the open question this week answers.
What to Watch
Two tightenings in one week would make the rate argument against non-yielding assets louder rather than quieter. A hold in Tokyo keeps the pressure narrower and American.
Does Wall Street Start Building What Crypto Already Has?
The SEC holds a roundtable Thursday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern on preparations for 24-hour trading. It is public and webcast.
The panel list is the story. Nasdaq (NDAQ), Cboe (CBOE) and NYSE. Robinhood (HOOD), Schwab (SCHW) and UBS. BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), DTCC and FINRA. Three panels cover readiness, systems and liquidity.
The published agenda does not mention crypto once.
That is the interesting part. Trading every hour has been one of crypto's few structural advantages over equities. Thursday is the day the incumbents start pricing what it would take to remove it.
What to Watch
Nothing gets decided Thursday. What emerges is a sense of how close the traditional side actually is, and how much of crypto's always-open advantage survives if they get there.
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Last week crypto had no vote. This week it has one.
Tuesday belongs to the Senate. Sixty votes only open the debate, and the odds market has been marking that down for weeks.
Wednesday belongs to the Fed. The decision matters less than the projections, because the projections say whether higher rates answer an oil shock or mark a new resting place.
Thursday does two things at once. The SEC studies how to make stocks trade the way crypto already does. The Bank of Japan decides whether the global floor under rates moves again.
Underneath it, last week's two open questions keep running without dates. The fund outflows. Liquid's missing 598 coins.
Bitcoin traded near $77,000 late Friday, roughly where it began the month.
Last week the price got set somewhere else. This week the decisions arrive on schedule, with times attached.
Crypto still does not get to make them.
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