Bitcoin's slide from Thursday's close to a Saturday-morning low, and its partial rebound since, is the sole real-time read on whether the post-Jackson-Hole rate repricing has staying power.
Equities, Treasuries, and gold all close for the weekend. Bitcoin does not, making it the only available real-time gauge of whether markets are still digesting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks or have already moved past them.
Bitcoin closed Thursday near $80,275 and fell as much as 3.3 percent to an overnight low near $77,678 around 1:28 a.m. Eastern time Saturday. The drop coincided with the post-Jackson-Hole jump in rate-hike expectations, while one prediction-market contract was reported to have moved from below 50 percent to roughly 68 percent following the speech. That figure comes from a different contract structure than the CME-derived shift reported elsewhere and does not need to match it exactly.
The move did not stand alone. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a net outflow of roughly $202 million on Friday, snapping a nine-session streak that had added nearly $3 billion in inflows, consistent with a broader rate-sensitive pullback from non-yielding assets after the speech.
Bitcoin later recovered part of the decline, trading back near $78,000. One competing explanation for the depth of Friday night's drop points to a large block of Bitcoin options that expired Thursday morning, removing hedging positions that would normally cushion price swings and thinning liquidity into the weekend.
Both forces can be at work at the same time. The weekend tape shows that Bitcoin did not shrug off the hawkish repricing, but it does not cleanly separate a genuine macro revaluation from a liquidity-driven overshoot.
The more informative test arrives when equities, Treasuries, and gold reopen. Monday's cross-asset reaction will say more about the staying power of Friday's shift than the weekend crypto tape alone.