Fed officials stopped talking Saturday, 10 days before their Oct. 27-28 meeting. Kalshi's October hike contract traded at 13 cents Friday morning. Ether funds lost about $250 million in four days, and Strive is raising about $630 million with bitcoin among its planned uses.
Crypto enters the week with rate fear low and buyers thin.
Bitcoin traded near $82,800 at 7:25 a.m. Eastern Friday. Ether was near $2,480. Bitcoin touched about $79,700 on Thursday, its first trade below $80,000 since Sept. 18, then climbed as Treasury yields fell.
The Fed's quiet period began Saturday. No official will preview the vote, so data, oil and bond prices carry the rate story alone.
The buyers are the bigger question. U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost a net $146 million from Monday through Thursday, based on Farside's daily data. The largest corporate buyers spent more on their own securities than on coins. MSCI's clock runs to Nov. 11.
Here are six questions for the week ahead.
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Can the Hike Bet Stay Low Without Fed Voices?
What happens. The Fed stays silent until its decision. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to preview the meeting in his last scheduled talk before the blackout.
When. The quiet period runs from Saturday through the Oct. 27-28 meeting. The decision comes Oct. 28.
What crypto prices in.Kalshi's October hike contract halved overnight and traded at 13 cents at 7:18 a.m. Friday. It had peaked at 55 cents on Wednesday. The 10-year yield closed Thursday at 5.10%. Bitcoin rose as yields fell Thursday.
What would change it. Oil is the likeliest push. Hormuz flows ran a third below Kpler's baseline in the week to Oct. 13, and energy drove more than 80% of September's jump in producer goods prices. A climb in yields back toward Wednesday's 5.33% would test bitcoin's link to bonds.
What to watch. Kalshi's October contract, the 10-year yield and Brent, which traded near $106 early Friday.
Will Bitcoin Fund Buyers Show Up Two Days in a Row?
What happens. Daily flows into U.S. spot bitcoin funds keep setting the tone.
When. Each trading day, Monday through Friday.
What crypto prices in. Not much from funds. Bitcoin held near Monday's level while funds lost money on balance. Days swung from $175.7 million in on Tuesday to $261.4 million out on Wednesday. Thursday's net was $5.1 million. The week before, bitcoin funds lost about $680 million, SoSoValue data showed.
What would change it. Two or more straight days of inflows would point to a real return. Outflows on a day when yields fall would say rates are no longer the main driver.
What to watch. Whether inflows come from more than one fund. On Monday, all of the bitcoin outflow came from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). On Tuesday, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the inflow.
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Who Buys Ether Now?
What happens. Ether's main buyers pulled back at the same time.
When. Daily fund flows, and any update from BitMine.
What crypto prices in. Ether fell to near $2,480 Friday from about $2,540 early Monday, while bitcoin was nearly flat. Ether funds ended a 10-day exodus on Tuesday, then lost money Wednesday and Thursday. BitMine (BMNR) holds about 6.03 million ether, near its 5% supply target, and called itself "largely finished" buying.
Leverage also cut against ether. In the 24 hours to early Thursday, ether's $286 million of liquidations topped bitcoin's $197 million, though ether's futures market is smaller.
What would change it. Steady inflows to BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), which led Wednesday's outflow with $109.8 million. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) now lets clients stake ether, but it disclosed no reward rate and no usage.
What to watch. Ether's price against bitcoin, and BlackRock's ether fund flows.
Do Treasury Companies Buy Coins or Their Own Paper?
What happens. Corporate buyers report what they did with their money.
When. Strategy disclosed its latest buying on Monday, Oct. 12. It has not set a date for its next update. Strive has not given a closing date for its new preferred sale.
What crypto prices in. Little steady corporate demand. Strategy put preferred buybacks ahead of bitcoin. Strategy (MSTR) bought 250 bitcoin for $21.5 million. It spent $192.4 million, about nine times as much, retiring its STRC preferred.
Strive (ASST) priced 15% perpetual preferred at $90, below its $100 stated value. That means it is paying about 16.7% to raise about $630 million before fees. Bitcoin is among the planned uses. Metaplanet's new ¥52 billion in convertible bonds will buy no bitcoin.
What would change it. A filing that shows coin buying outpacing buybacks. A large Strive purchase would also add demand.
What to watch. The ratio of bitcoin bought to stock retired. Also watch Strive's existing SATA preferred, which closed near $97.67 on Wednesday, below $100.
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How Do Treasury Stocks Trade Before MSCI's List?
What happens.MSCI drew its line on bitcoin-treasury companies. "Non-operating companies" will be ineligible for its global indexes.
When. MSCI names the companies on Nov. 11. The change takes effect at the Nov. 30 close. No MSCI step is scheduled this week.
What crypto prices in. Some risk, not a verdict. MSCI's earlier test run flagged Strategy and Metaplanet. Strategy closed up 5.6% Thursday, before the news, and traded about 3% lower at 7:25 a.m. Friday. Current members leave only if they fail the test in each of their last two annual filings.
What would change it. A company describing how it meets the test, or a change to its filings.
What to watch. Strategy's move against bitcoin. On Wednesday, the median crypto stock fell about four times as far as bitcoin. A wider gap would show index risk adding to coin risk.
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Do Stablecoin Rules and Rails Draw Real Volume?
What happens. Stablecoins face dated rules and new live uses.
When.Sen. Richard Blumenthal asked Cantor Fitzgerald for its Tether records by Oct. 23. Europe's banking regulator takes over USDC's reserve and capital supervision on Nov. 12. Europe's securities regulator set Jan. 8, 2027 for platforms to clear exposures to unapproved stablecoins.
What crypto prices in. A gap between approved and unapproved tokens. USDC is approved in the EU. The rule names no token, but Tether's USDT is the largest affected. Circle (CRCL) fell 5.6% Wednesday after the USDC news and rose about 9% Thursday in a broad crypto-stock rally.
What would change it. Usage numbers. Three deals moved stablecoins into production on Thursday. Visa (V) lets businesses prefund payouts with USDC, and Cross River Bank built in Ripple's RLUSD. None disclosed volumes.
What to watch. Whether Cantor responds by Oct. 23. Blumenthal's letter is a minority request, not a subpoena. Also watch for the first volume figures from the new payment links.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
We traced three: IBKR, WRB and FIS. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
Free report, texted to your phone.