Treasury sells $183 billion of notes around the Fed. Blue Owl reports Oct. 29, a day before a big credit fund pays its exit line. OpenAI expects commitments at $1.25 trillion.
Last week, the price of getting cash out showed up.
BCRED paid about half of its exit requests. Some debt behind an AI campus traded near 80 cents. OpenAI's price talks slipped to $1.25 trillion.
This week, several get set in public. The Fed meets. Blue Owl (OWL) reports Thursday, and a big Blue Owl credit fund pays its exit line Friday. OpenAI expects commitments around then.
The 10-year yield ended Thursday at 4.96%, its first close below 5% since September. Brent settled at $113.17 that day, its highest close since May.
Below are the six places capital needs to be priced next. Each is marked scheduled or open-ended. All times are Eastern.
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The Fed Meets Oct. 27-28. Will Buyers Take Notes Below 5%? (Scheduled)
The Fed's decision comes Wednesday. Around it, the Treasury sells about $183 billion of notes. Two-year notes go Monday, five-year notes Tuesday and $44 billion of seven-year notes Thursday.
Traders expect a hold. Kalshi's contract on an October hike fell to 6 cents from 12 on Thursday. A Polymarket contract on a hold rose to 93.5 cents.
Last week, the 20-year sold at 5.469%, with more bids than in September. Then a five-year inflation-linked sale drew the weakest bids for that term since April of last year, by one tally.
Floating-rate borrowers are exposed first. A hold keeps their coupons where they are. Long yields feed buyout math through exit values and refinancing.
What to Watch
A hold with a calm tone would leave floating costs flat. Weak bids at the 2-, 5- or 7-year sales would suggest last week's rally ran ahead of demand. Britain's budget lands Wednesday and the ECB decides Thursday, so long yields have other tests.
Blue Owl Reports Oct. 29. What Is Jupiter Worth? (Scheduled)
Blue Owl (OWL) reports before Thursday's open and holds its call at 10 a.m. Project Jupiter sits at the center.
Some of the campus's debt traded near 80 cents, a report said. Last month, it was quoted at 89 to 91. The price covers only the pieces that traded, not the whole $18 billion. Blue Owl has about $3 billion of equity in Jupiter, a person familiar said. Oracle (ORCL) leases it. Its force majeure notice can push back the start of full rent.
The buildings are nearly done. The power is not. A state hearing on the site's air permit begins Dec. 7. Microsoft ended its deal for an Nscale site after grid power there slipped to the 2030s, a report said.
What to Watch
Listen for how Blue Owl marks Jupiter and when it expects rent to start. A mark near the traded debt would show lenders now charging for power risk. A mark near par would leave the 80-cent trade as the only outside price until Dec. 7.
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A Big Credit Fund Pays Its Exit Line Oct. 30. How Long Is the Queue Now? (Scheduled and Open-ended)
Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. expects to pay its third-quarter repurchases Friday. It had planned to fill about 30% of its $3.1 billion of requests. Cox Capital bid $7.31 a share for some of its stock, 20% below the fund's stated $9.14. That offer runs to Nov. 25.
Also Friday, Apollo (APO) starts publishing loan-by-loan marks across its credit business. On Saturday, MA Financial's freeze on an Australian property credit fund takes effect. It runs until at least the end of March.
The biggest line has no date. At Blackstone (BX)'s BCRED, requests hit 10% of net asset value last quarter, twice its limit. Net outflows were $1.4 billion. A HarbourVest fund will offer to buy back shares at 90% of asset value, against a recent price near 71%. Holders vote Nov. 16.
What to Watch
Heavy selling into Cox's discount would show what holders pay to leave now. Apollo's marks matter if they track public loan prices. Apollo reports Nov. 3 and KKR (KKR) holds its call Nov. 9. Their retail flows will show if the queue is spreading.
OpenAI Expects Commitments Around Oct. 30. Will $1.25 Trillion Hold? (Open-ended)
OpenAI is close to raising as much as $30 billion at $1.25 trillion before the new money, people familiar said. Talks had been at $1.4 trillion. Commitments are expected by about Oct. 30. Coatue and UAE backers lead, one report said.
Funds that hold OpenAI are exposed. So are other AI marks. DeepSeek's round values it at about 500 billion yuan, reports said, and is not final. Legora's backers paid $8.8 billion, up to about 44 times its stated sales. One sale may run the other way. A report put Fireblocks at about $2.5 billion in talks with Visa (V), about 69% below its 2022 mark. Fireblocks called the report "not true at present time."
What to Watch
A close at $1.25 trillion would still sit about 47% above March. A second cut would tell funds to mark private AI lower. A close at the price would show the public selloff stopping short of the top private name. A word from Visa or Fireblocks would confirm or end the talks.
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Big AI Spenders Need Funding. Who Prices Their Next Dollar? (Open-ended)
No date is set. Meta Platforms (META)'s default swaps hit a record last week, and its bonds fell. Its spending last quarter topped the cash its business made. Meta says it "expects to conduct offerings of Class C common stock from time to time". It says the non-voting shares let it seek money from sovereign investors.
SpaceX (SPCX)plans about twice last quarter's $19.6 billion of spending this quarter. Tesla (TSLA)cut its plan for the year to about $20 billion. Amazon (AMZN) reports Thursday.
Meta's bondholders and new stock buyers are exposed. So are the power firms that sell to the build. GE Vernova (GEV), Vistra (VST) and Bloom Energy (BE)fell harder than chipmakers on Thursday.
Preferred stock is another channel. Strategy (MSTR) holders vote Oct. 28 on daily dividends for STRC, its preferred. It has been buying STRC back while it trades below its $100 stated value. Strategy reports Oct. 29.
What to Watch
The first Meta bond or Class C sale would put a number on its funding cost. Amazon's spending plan is the next read on whether the build slows. SpaceX's filing should show how much AI revenue comes from its largest customers.
Signed Deals Need to Close. Getty's Plan Needs Votes. (Scheduled and Open-ended)
EQT signed an all-cash deal for Qiagen (QGEN) at €46.50 a share. It needs half the shares plus one and is set to close in mid-2027. Braze (BRZE) traded about 4% below Salesforce (CRM)'s $47.50 cash price as approvals wait. Tradeweb (TW), which agreed to buy Trumid mostly in cash, reports Thursday.
Distressed holders have dates, too. Getty Images (GETY)won court approval to borrow $85 million from a Koch affiliate for now, out of up to $143 million. Creditor votes are due Nov. 30. Holders of 16.5% of its unsecured notes have not signed on. Common holders get nothing. Disney (DIS)'s Character.AI bid faces rivals by Nov. 20. Its offer to hire the staff is worth about three times its $20 million bid.
What to Watch
Braze's gap is the market's price on closing risk. Getty's holdouts are where an objection would start. A higher Character.AI bid would show value beyond the staff. KKR's Nov. 9 results may also show the debt behind its $2.9 billion Infinity sale to Ares (ARES) funds. In each case, the cash on the table sets the terms.
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Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
We traced three: IBKR, WRB and FIS. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
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