Business

The AI Revenue Okta Itself Called Immaterial

Okta's stock climbed roughly 21 percent in extended trading after its second-quarter results, the largest single-session move of the year, enough to put shares above their prior 52-week high if the level holds into the next regular session.…

The AI Revenue Okta Itself Called Immaterial
The AI Revenue Okta Itself Called Immaterial

Okta's stock climbed roughly 21 percent in extended trading after its second-quarter results, the largest single-session move of the year, enough to put shares above their prior 52-week high if the level holds into the next regular session. Revenue came in at 805 million dollars, up roughly 11 percent from a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share reached 1.05 dollars, ahead of the roughly 97 cents analysts had expected. Current remaining performance obligation, a measure of near-term contracted bookings, grew 14 percent, three points ahead of the growth rate the company had guided to three months earlier.

Nearly every account of the reaction settled on the same explanation: identity security is becoming essential infrastructure as companies deploy AI agents that need their own credentials and access controls, and Okta, as an independent identity provider, is positioned to benefit. It is a coherent thesis, and Okta's own chief executive built his prepared remarks entirely around it, describing every AI agent as needing "a trusted identity and clear controls over what it can access and do." What the same evening's chief financial officer commentary reportedly added, and what the rally largely did not seem to price in, is a specific admission: AI-related revenue is expected to remain immaterial for Okta through the current fiscal year, with a meaningful contribution not expected until fiscal 2028 at the earliest.

A Real Operating Improvement, With One Caveat

Set the AI narrative aside, and Okta's underlying numbers still tell a genuinely strong story. GAAP operating income reached 107 million dollars, a 13.3 percent margin, up sharply from 5.6 percent a year ago and a clear step up even from the prior several quarters, which had run in the 3 to 7 percent range. GAAP net income of 116 million dollars marks Okta's sixth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Operating cash flow reached 234 million dollars, a 29 percent margin. This is a business that has moved from adjusted-metrics-only profitability to consistent, growing GAAP profitability, which is a meaningfully higher bar to clear than the adjusted numbers most software companies lead with.

One caveat is worth flagging. Okta changed the tax rate it uses to calculate adjusted earnings, from 26 percent to 21 percent, effective at the start of this fiscal year. A lower assumed tax rate mechanically increases adjusted net income and earnings per share independent of any change in actual operating performance, and no like-for-like restatement isolating that effect from genuine operating improvement was available for this article. Some portion of the 15 percent year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings per share reflects this rate change rather than the business itself; this publication cannot quantify precisely how much.

What Management Is Actually Claiming About AI

Executives were specific about how AI is showing up in the business today, even while being clear about how much revenue it currently represents. Products tied to AI and newer identity governance tools were cited as roughly 30 percent of the quarter's bookings, and deals that included these newer products carried an average annual contract value roughly 40 percent higher than deals that did not. Management described new organizational controls for AI agents as investments companies will want regardless of how their broader AI strategies evolve, and framed Okta's pitch against Microsoft's competing identity product around ease of integration, vendor neutrality, and avoiding lock-in to any single cloud or AI provider.

Those are real, trackable numbers, and they support a demand story. What they do not yet support is the idea that AI is already a meaningful driver of Okta's reported revenue. The 30 percent of bookings figure describes deal composition and future contracted value, most of which has not yet been recognized as revenue, and the CFO's own reported characterization of AI revenue as immaterial for the current fiscal year is a direct statement about where things stand today, not a forecast about where they are headed. The gap between those two facts, real bookings traction with future revenue potential, and a rally sized as though the revenue were already showing up, is the central tension this quarter leaves unresolved.

Okta also disclosed, separate from this quarter's results, an agreement reached in late July to acquire an AI security startup for approximately 200 million dollars, a deal expected to close before the current quarter ends. That acquisition is consistent with management's stated view that most large enterprises will eventually manage more AI agent identities than human ones, a claim about the direction of the business that this quarter's numbers cannot independently confirm one way or the other.

What Comes Next

Okta raised its full-year revenue, operating margin, and earnings guidance across every metric it discloses, a clear signal of confidence from management even without a transcript to characterize how directly analysts pressed on the AI-revenue question during the call. The company's own framing suggests it sees this quarter as validation of a multi-year positioning bet rather than proof that AI is already paying off in the income statement, and investors reacted as though the payoff were closer at hand.

The burden of proof from here is specific and trackable. Investors should watch whether the roughly 30 percent of bookings tied to newer AI and governance products keeps growing as a share of the total, whether that translates into recognized revenue Okta is willing to break out on its own rather than describe only through bookings and pipeline metrics, and whether the sharp step up in GAAP operating margin holds once the tax-rate change is no longer flattering the comparison. The bull case strengthens if AI-tied bookings keep compounding and margin gains prove structural rather than a one-quarter mix effect. The bear case strengthens if the gap between the AI narrative driving the stock and the immaterial AI revenue management itself has acknowledged persists for several more quarters without narrowing.

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