One in five owners now ranks inflation as their top problem, up from 16% in August and nearly triple the survey's long-run norm. The NFIB optimism index slipped to 97.9, just below its 52-year average.
Main Street's mood barely moved in September. What owners worried about did.
At 97.9, the National Federation of Independent Business's monthly gauge of small-company sentiment sits a hair under its 52-year average of 98.0, after a 0.8-point slip in September. A companion measure of how unsure owners feel about the outlook climbed to 90, more than 20 points above its norm.
One owner in five now ranks inflation as the biggest issue facing the business. That share was 16% in August, and over the survey's history it has averaged about 7%. Finding qualified workers, cited by 26%, was the only problem named more often.
Costs, credit and caution
The survey shows owners paying more to borrow. Short-term loans carried an average rate of 8.2%, 0.7 point more than in August, and the net share of owners whose latest loan cost more than the one before rose to 8%, the highest level since June 2025.
Owners also turned more cautious about expansion. The share calling this a good moment to expand dropped to 7% from 12%, and the net share expecting better conditions in six months fell to 6% from 10%. Self-assessments slipped, with 48% calling their business "good," down 9 points, and 35% calling it "fair," up 7.
"Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business," said Bill Dunkelberg, the group's chief economist.
One manufacturer in Wisconsin put it more plainly in the survey: "Prices for fuel and raw materials are too high, and finding qualified labor is difficult."
Hiring
Hiring intentions did not change. On a net basis, 17% of owners still expect to add workers in the coming quarter, and the share with unfilled openings eased to 32%.
Market implications
One reading is that small businesses are absorbing higher costs without breaking. Optimism is essentially at its long-run average, hiring plans are unchanged and the headline index came in roughly as economists expected.
A second reading is that inflation is spreading into planning. A four-point jump in the share citing it as a top worry, higher loan rates and fewer owners ready to expand point to the "inflationary mindset" that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned Monday she is beginning to see signs of among business contacts.
Small-company stocks were weaker than the broad market. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell about 0.5% in afternoon trading, against a 0.1% dip in the S&P 500.
What to watch
Wednesday's September consumer-price report will show whether owners' concern shows up in core prices. Economists polled by FactSet expect headline inflation of 3.6% from a year earlier and a 0.2% monthly rise in core prices.
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