Korea's Kospi fell 5.46% and tripped a trading curb as memory-chip stocks sank. Goldman Sachs put the war premium in crude at just over $20 a barrel. Futures on a memory-chip maker lost more to crypto liquidations than XRP did.
Seoul took the hardest hit from the chip selloff, and the big banks split on their numbers.
Korea's Kospi fell 5.46% and tripped a trading curb. It closed at 6,035.35, its lowest since July 30. Samsung Electronics lost 7.4% and SK hynix 10.1%.
Japan's Nikkei fell 1.8%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.3%. The selling followed Monday's U.S. memory drop after China's CXMT described a denser chip design.
Nasdaq 100 futures were down almost 1% before the open, and S&P 500 futures slightly lower.
JPMorgan missed earnings forecasts but raised its interest-income outlook. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) earned $5.57 a share, or $5.75 excluding $658 million of securities losses.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $5.90. Fixed-income trading fell 4%. The bank put 2027 net interest income, excluding markets, near $107 billion.
The shares fell as much as 4% after the release, then turned higher before the open.
Wells Fargo (WFC) beat forecasts by 2 cents at $1.87 a share, helped by $170 million of tax benefits. Revenue fell short, and the shares traded about 2% lower.
Citigroup (C) earned $2.85 a share, above the $2.66 analysts expected.
Crowded Trades Meet the Numbers
Korea fell hardest, with two memory makers making up a large share of its index. Hong Kong's small gain suggests the selling targeted markets heavy in chips. At JPMorgan, bond trading slipped while its interest-income outlook rose.
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Brent gave back most of Monday's gain as Goldman put a price on the war premium.
Goldman Sachs puts the war premium in crude above $20 a barrel. The bank raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85 over the weekend. It expects that premium to shrink more slowly than it had assumed. After Russia invaded Ukraine, it noted, the premium took about three quarters to fall sharply.
Brent traded near $105.20 Tuesday morning, down about 1.4% from Monday's $106.65 settlement. Goldman's December target sits about 14% lower. In a severe scenario, Brent averages about $125 in 2027. That assumes Gulf output stays 5 million barrels a day below prewar levels.
A Houthi official told AFP that Saudi oil facilities and airports "have become legitimate targets."
The IMF raised its world growth forecast to 3.1% on Tuesday. It assumes oil averages about $96 a barrel this year and $87 in 2027. Hormuz shipments resume by March in its forecast.
Both Forecasts Need the Strait
Both forecasts assume crude eases, Goldman's by December and the IMF's next year. Goldman needs much of the war premium to fade, and the IMF needs Hormuz flowing by March. The Houthis have now named Saudi oil sites as targets. A confirmed hit on Saudi supply would test both numbers at once.
Bonds rallied into Wednesday's inflation report, and a Yemen contract leaned further toward U.S. restraint.
Treasuries rallied off 24-year highs, but a December hike is still priced in. The 10-year yield eased to about 5.20% as cash trading resumed after Monday's holiday.
Economists surveyed by FactSet expect September consumer prices to rise 0.5%. The report lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
Houthi-run media blamed Saudi Arabia for overnight airstrikes on Kamaran island and near Hodeida. Riyadh did not immediately comment.
Traders added to bets that the U.S. stays out of Yemen. Polymarket's line on the U.S.-Yemen ceasefire holding through Oct. 31 rose 2 cents overnight, to 81.5 cents.
The contract counts only direct American strikes on Yemen. The line has drawn under $100,000 of trading.
A Pause Priced Before the Print
Bond buyers came back before the data, but traders still see a hike by December. The Yemen line rose in thin trading, with no U.S. decision reported. Wednesday's report could bring October back into play.
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Money for AI got pricier, while Goldman's lending to trading clients nearly doubled.
Broadcom (AVGO) Chief Executive Hock Tan said Monday that "[what] I think might be the biggest constraint is capital." AI's builders are finding capital harder to raise.
Several big lenders are nearing internal limits on data-center loans, the Financial Times reported. They are exploring ways to shift the risk.
Tencent is selling dollar bonds, Bloomberg reported. Its 10-year notes were marketed at about 1.15 percentage points over Treasuries, near 6.35%.
Goldman posted its second-highest quarterly revenue as equities financing nearly doubled. Goldman Sachs (GS) earned $17.01 a share on $18.68 billion of revenue.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected about $13 a share and $16.71 billion. Equities financing, including lending to hedge funds, earned $3.37 billion, topping trading's $3.08 billion.
Goldman said its investment banking backlog shrank from the end of June. The shares rose about 3% before the open.
Lenders Name Their Terms
Money still reaches AI builders, but at higher yields and with banks trimming exposure. Goldman now earns more from lending to equity clients than from trading with them, even as its deal pipeline shrank. This week's bank calls will show how much risk lenders still want to carry.
Bitcoin climbed back from an overnight flush that reached a memory-chip maker.
Bitcoin traded near $83,300 Tuesday morning, after falling to around $81,000 overnight. Ether was near $2,510.
SanDisk futures on crypto exchanges lost more to liquidations than XRP. CoinGlass counted about $800 million of liquidations in the 24 hours to early Tuesday. About 86% were bets on higher prices.
Perpetual futures tied to SanDisk (SNDK) shares lost about $19.1 million, edging out XRP's $18.8 million.
Ether funds posted a 10th straight day of outflows, losing $85.4 million Monday, Farside data show. BlackRock's ether fund accounted for $75.1 million.
All of Monday's $65.4 million in bitcoin-fund outflows came from BlackRock's bitcoin fund.
Leverage Left, Buyers Stayed Away
The flush cleared mostly long bets, and bitcoin recovered much of the drop by morning. U.S. fund buyers have not followed, and ether funds keep shedding money. Leverage reset faster than demand returned.
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Tuesday morning was about what money costs.
Chip stocks fell after a rival's claim and a warning about capital, and AI borrowers paid up. JPMorgan's bond desk slipped as it raised its interest-income outlook.
Wednesday's inflation report puts a number on the cost of money.
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