CVC and GBL reached 74.3% of Recordati, short of the 90% needed to delist. Jio's IPO drew bids for 22 times its shares. A report on tower talks split telecom stocks. CalPERS said it swapped some Big Tech exposure for private equity.
$1.4 trillion.
Private equity exits over the 12 months through September were worth that much, the most in 18 quarters. KPMG's count uses PitchBook data. The number of exits fell to its lowest in 22 quarters. Big companies are finding buyers. Smaller ones are moving more slowly. On Friday, an arm of Goldman Sachs (GS) agreed to buy control of one, but not all of it.
Fewer sales, bigger checks.
- An arm of Goldman Sachs (GS)agreed to buy control of Celnor at about €1 billion, a person familiar with the deal said. The seller, Inflexion, will keep a stake.
- Brent climbed past $116 as Treasuries gave back part of Thursday's rally. The Dow fell 1.2%. Bitcoin was flat.
- The Fed decides Wednesday. Inflation and growth data arrive Thursday.
- American Express (AXP)beat, raised its forecast and plans to cut about 5% of its staff. It fell 3.7%. SLB (SLB)rose 7% after its beat.
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Private Equity Sold Fewer, Bigger Companies. On Friday, Sellers Kept Pieces.
Inflexion built Celnor in three years by buying smaller firms. It agreed to sell control, but not all of it. The founder and his team will reinvest, the firms said. The deal still needs regulatory approval and should close early next year. The price multiple was not given.
In India, the early backers kept everything. Jio Platforms' IPO drew bids for about 22 times the shares on offer, exchange data showed. Big funds bid for more than 70 times their slice. Every share sold is new. So the funds that bought in during 2020 are not selling. Oravel, the parent of OYO, faces the other side. Likely IPO buyers have signaled a value more than a third below its ask, people familiar said.
In Italy, a take-private got control but not the whole company. CVC and GBL ended their Recordati offer with 74.3%. That clears their two-thirds minimum. It falls short of the 90% needed to delist. Shares bought in the market helped carry them past two-thirds. The offer reopens Nov. 3 to Nov. 9.
Keeping a Stake Means Waiting on Later Prices
Inflexion's fund investors would get cash for control of Celnor and keep a stake in the rest. Jio's 2020 backers will be paid by how the stock trades after listing, not by the IPO price. If more owners exit this way, more of their returns could ride on later prices.
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SIGNAL 1: LKQ Changed CEOs and Pulled Its Forecast Nine Months Into a Sale Review
LKQ (LKQ)replaced its chief executive and withdrew its 2026 forecast. Its board tied the change, and a new adviser for Europe, to the review it began in January. That review includes a possible sale. Justin Jude "ceased to serve," the filing said. It gave no reason. Former Veritiv chief Salvatore Abbate starts Dec. 15.
Europe's margin roughly halved, by LKQ's early numbers. Adjusted profit fell well short of analysts' forecasts. The stock fell 22.5%, to its lowest close since April 2020. The news came out together, so the drop can't be pinned on one item.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Full results and a call come Oct. 29. Investors will press on Europe, the assets held for sale and the review.
SIGNAL 2: Firms Raised Prices at the Fastest Pace Since 2022. The 10-Year Closed Back at 5%.
This morning's PMD named Friday's business survey as the first look at growth this month. Growth held up, and prices jumped. S&P Global's flash survey showed selling prices rising at the steepest rate since August 2022. Its main gauge eased to 57.6, still strong. Factory hiring was the fastest since 2012.
Households' long-run inflation outlook rose to 3.5%, the Michigan survey found. Its director warned that view could become entrenched. Yields rose about 4 basis points across the curve. The 10-year closed at 5%, taking back part of Thursday's drop. Brent was above $116 late Friday.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
The Fed decides Wednesday, and PCE prices land Thursday. Michigan's next survey comes Nov. 6.
SIGNAL 3: A Tied Poll, and Traders Still Give Flávio Bolsonaro About Three-in-Four Odds
A Datafolha poll put Brazil's runoff at 50% to 50% in valid votes. A week earlier, it had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%. Polymarket's contract that pays on a Flávio win dipped 2.5 points after the poll. It won back about half by Friday morning, near 76 cents.
A poll measures vote share. The contract prices the chance of winning. Lula drew level in a week. Traders marked the contract down, but did not treat the poll as final.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Brazil votes Sunday. The real and Brazilian stocks react first, on Monday.
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- CalPERS said it swapped some Big Tech risk for stakes in hundreds of private firms. It cut its direct shares in the seven biggest tech stocks by about a quarter in the first half. That is one newspaper's math from filings. It counts shares, not dollars moved. The trimming came before this week's AI selloff.
- A report said SpaceX (SPCX) is in talks for space on cell towers. The market paid for the name. Crown Castle (CCI), named in the report, rose 9.1%. American Tower (AMT) and SBA (SBAC) gave back most of early gains of 10% or more. Both closed up about 4%. AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) each fell about 8%. Verizon (VZ) fell just over 1%. No company has confirmed talks.
- Franklin Templeton (BEN)registered two ETFs that turn stock dividends into bitcoin. They start at 95% U.S. stocks and 5% bitcoin. Each dividend buys more bitcoin. A quarterly rebalance trims bitcoin back to 4.5% whenever it tops 5%. A prospectus lists Oct. 27 as the effective date. No launch date is set.
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
Owners are selling pieces, not whole companies.
Celnor, Jio and Recordati each left part of the company unsold. KPMG's count suggests the full sale is the hard step. LKQ shows the public version. Its review has no sale yet, and its new chief's pay goals run through 2029. One reading is that buyers will pay for control, but not always for all of it. If so, more private marks would be tested by later trading than by a final sale.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Fri., Oct. 23
Moody's review of France, due Friday evening
Sun., Oct. 25
Brazil's presidential runoff
Mon., Oct. 26
Jio share allotment; Verizon (VZ) results; $69 billion two-year note sale
Tue., Oct. 27
Effective date listed for Franklin's bitcoin dividend ETFs
Oct. 27-28
Fed meeting
Wed., Oct. 28
Jio listing; Microsoft (MSFT) results
Thu., Oct. 29
LKQ (LKQ) full results; September PCE prices and Q3 GDP
Fri., Oct. 30
Recordati final offer results due
Mon., Nov. 2
Recordati offer payment
Nov. 3-9
Recordati offer reopens
Tue., Nov. 3
U.S. midterm elections
Fri., Nov. 6
Michigan preliminary November survey
Tue., Dec. 15
Abbate starts as LKQ (LKQ) CEO
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
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