The industry's main trade group says global private credit assets reached $4.1 trillion at the end of 2025, up 17%. The growth sits mostly in vehicles without redemption rights, while some semi-liquid funds face elevated withdrawal requests.
Two sets of numbers on private credit arrived on Thursday, and they describe different parts of the market.
The Alternative Credit Council, the private credit arm of the Alternative Investment Management Association, said in a report with Houlihan Lokey that global private credit assets under management reached $4.1 trillion at the end of 2025, up from $3.5 trillion. That is a 17% increase, the second consecutive year at that pace. First-half 2026 fundraising was the highest in five years.
The council noted that the fundraising pace contrasts "with elevated redemption requests in some semi-liquid vehicles." Most private credit capital, it said, sits in vehicles that do not give investors redemption rights. It named artificial intelligence as a major investment theme.
The same split, at the largest firm
Blackstone's third-quarter results, released the same morning, showed the pattern in a single firm. Fundraising in its credit and insurance business remained strong, with $35.8 billion of inflows. But investors in BCRED, its private credit fund for individual investors, asked to withdraw 10% of net asset value in the quarter, twice its 5% limit, and Blackstone paid about half.
The two data points suggest the stress is in the wealth wrappers, the semi-liquid funds that offer periodic withdrawals, more than in the locked-up capital that funds most of the asset class.
The other side
The industry group is an advocacy body, and its view of the market reflects that. It says public sentiment on private credit has become "divorced from the market-wide reality."
Credit-quality data released the same day was less upbeat. Credit Benchmark said default risk on loans held by business development companies has worsened 10% over two years. Allianz Trade expects a loss of about 1.2% on U.S. direct lending over the next year.
Neither figure points to a crisis, but together they show that the credit quality question has not gone away even as fundraising holds up.
What to watch
Redemption requests at other semi-liquid private credit funds in the fourth quarter, nonaccrual rates in business development company results, and whether fundraising holds at first-half levels.