A 46-page PitchBook report puts the prediction-market operator's range at $22.8 billion to $42.1 billion. The bull case depends on Kalshi surviving an adverse Supreme Court ruling by shifting to state licensing.
A new valuation of Kalshi rests on a forecast of the company's 2030 finances and, in its most optimistic version, on a truce with the states now suing it.
PitchBook analyst Franco Granda values the prediction-market operator at $30.4 billion in a base case, in a 46-page report whose range runs from $22.8 billion in a bear case to $42.1 billion in a bull case. The base case is built on projected 2030 revenue of $6.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.7 billion. The report draws on data from Kalshi's API, PitchBook's own records, Dune databases, government filings, management commentary and disclosures from public peers.
At the base-case value, Kalshi would be priced at about 4.75 times its projected 2030 revenue and about 8.2 times projected 2030 adjusted earnings. Those multiples are measured against figures four years out, and the path to those figures runs through unresolved legal fights.
The bull case makes that explicit. It assumes Kalshi could survive a loss at the Supreme Court over sports contracts by switching to licenses from individual states. Some legal experts question that assumption, pointing to Kalshi's strained relationships with state lawmakers.
Those relationships are adversarial on the record. New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi nearly two months ago, arguing that it operates illegal gambling, and on Thursday filed a similar case against rival Polymarket. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court earlier this month to take up the question of who regulates prediction markets. The appeals courts have split on the question, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission says the field is its alone to regulate.
Federal scrutiny is rising alongside the state litigation. On Tuesday, the CFTC's market overseers warned that contracts paying out on whether someone says particular words are especially exposed to manipulation.
Kalshi is privately held, so PitchBook's figures are an outside estimate rather than a market price. The spread between the bear and bull cases is $19.3 billion, and the bull case is the one tied explicitly to a regulatory outcome. The Supreme Court's decision on whether to hear New Jersey's petition, in a term that opens , is the first ruling that bears on it.