Yesterday a profitable firm chose to wait on its IPO. This morning OpenAI lines up private money instead.
$30 billion
What OpenAI aims to raise privately while it holds off on an IPO, people familiar said.
The Big AI Story Nobody Knows
There's a website called RentAHuman.ai. Its tagline: "Robots need your body."
721,000 people across 100 countries have signed up.
And according to Alexander Green - the man who bought Apple under $1, Netflix at $1.62, Amazon under $2* - this is the clearest signal yet that Phase 2 of the AI supercycle has arrived. (Split adjusted prices)
He's identified three companies set to dominate this next phase.
OpenAI is in talks to raise $30 billion privately.
Two backers handled nearly half of Anthropic's sales. Nvidia buys back record stock as its buyers burn cash. Washington chose voluntary AI audits over rules.
PMD LENS
Monday PMD said a boom can break once the window to raise fresh money shuts. Tuesday Oura put off a profitable IPO. This morning, the money went private.
OpenAI Seeks $30 Billion Privately. Altman Won't List While Things Feel "So in Flux."
OpenAI is in early talks to raise about $30 billion, people familiar said. It seeks a value near $1.4 trillion before the new money. The round would be a bridge in place of an IPO, they said. Investors are driving it, one said. No term sheet is final, and the size could change. OpenAI declined to comment.
OpenAI's revenue run rate topped $40 billion in August. It has grown 70% since July, a person said.
Altman has ruled out an IPO this year. "Things feel so in flux," he said Tuesday. He wants to decide "without the pressure of being a newly public company."
Seven IPOs of $50 million or more were put off or pulled this quarter, per Renaissance Capital. That is up from four last quarter. Firms "don't necessarily, absolutely need to tap the public markets," said Latham's Ian Schuman.
The private money runs in a loop. Anthropic's confidential filing shows how. Amazon (AMZN) and Google handled 47% of its 2025 sales. Both are big investors, key suppliers and direct rivals.
By one count, Anthropic paid them about $351 million in fees. The ties could "give rise to conflicts of interest," Anthropic warns. Amazon declined to comment; the others did not respond.
The Bet Is Going Private, and Staying in a Few Hands
In PMD's read, the IPO delays did not cut off AI's money. They moved more of it to private rounds and to backers already tied to the labs. Private rounds skip the daily test of a public price. Watch if OpenAI's round closes near $1.4 trillion and if Anthropic still lists in November.
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks—Here's Why
The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
SIGNAL 1: Nvidia Can Buy Back $235 Billion of Stock. Its Buyers Face Negative Cash Flow.
Nvidia (NVDA) added $150 billion to its buyback plan. It now totals $235 billion, the largest ever by a US company in dollar terms. Analysts expect $183 billion of free cash flow this year. "Its clients cannot express similar faith," said DataTrek's Nicholas Colas.
Alphabet (GOOGL) halted buybacks this year. Its free cash flow turned negative in the June quarter. Meta (META) has bought back no stock in three quarters. Both, plus Amazon and SpaceX, are headed for negative free cash flow next year, partly from buying Nvidia chips. Microsoft and Apple still buy back stock.
Alphabet and Amazon fund more data centers with project debt, joint ventures and private credit. And Nvidia could guarantee up to $500 billion of its buyers' data-center loans.
One Company Is Paid Now. Its Buyers Pay for Later.
Nvidia collects cash today, while its buyers bet on profits in the 2030s. In PMD's read, much of the money raised in private ends up as chip orders. A buyback plan does not bind Nvidia to spend. Its next report will show how much stock it bought.
SIGNAL 2: Over 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Are in a Bear Market. The Index Sits Near a Record.
More than 40% of S&P 500 stocks are at least 20% off their 52-week highs. Seventeen were down by half or more as of Monday, including CoStar and Oracle. Yet the index sat within 2 percentage points of its record close Tuesday.
By some measures, breadth is the narrowest since around the dot-com peak. Other gauges call it the weakest since the spring 2025 tariff selloff. Nvidia alone is 8.4% of a large fund that tracks the index.
New York Fed chief John Williams saw "no need for urgency" to hike again. The odds of an Oct. 28 hike fell to near 50% from about 70%, per CME Group.
A Few Names Hold Up the Index
Saturday PMD saw a few AI names carry the index as the average stock fell. In PMD's read, this is In Focus one layer up: money bunched in a few hands. Watch if the gap closes because leaders fall or the rest recover.
SIGNAL 3: Trump Chose Voluntary AI Audits Over New Rules. Agencies Must Say "Super Intelligence."
At a White House lunch, tech leaders and President Trump agreed to outside safety audits in place of new AI rules. House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a "voluntary" set of "commitments." Trump then signed an order telling agencies to call AI "super intelligence," to improve its image.
Anthropic's Dario Amodei, who attended, said "the technology has very real risks." OpenAI held back a new model this week over safety. Its strategy chief faces Australian lawmakers Oct. 6. An OpenAI agent had reached non-public government files.
An Ipsos poll closed Sept. 20. In it, 73% of Americans worried AI firms had not done enough to prevent serious harm. Most wanted federal officials to play a major role in setting safety standards.
The Labs Now Set Their Own Pace
In PMD's read, the labs now set their own price in private rounds and their own safety checks. OpenAI's held-back model shows that check can work. It also shows it rests on each lab's call. Watch what Australia asks.
WARNING: A Major Market Shift Could Hit Stocks in 2026
If you have any money in the stock market, you may want to pay attention.
New research points to a massive market-moving event that could send hundreds of popular stocks into a sudden free fall.
Holding the wrong stocks when this hits could erase years of gains.
That’s why analysts have now identified a list of stocks investors may want to avoid as this event unfolds.
If you want to see what’s coming — and which stocks could be most at risk —
Ask of each story: who sets the price? For OpenAI, private backers do. At Anthropic, two backers handled 47% of sales. A few stocks set the index. The labs check themselves. In PMD's read, a broad, open market now sets few of these prices.
Monday PMD asked if the money keeps coming. In PMD's read, this morning says yes, but more of it is private and runs in a loop. OpenAI seeks $30 billion without a listing. Nvidia books the cash. The public market now prices less of the bet.
3 STOCKS OUR SIGNAL ENGINE SAYS TO WATCH CAREFULLY
Three stocks. Three signals. Two weeks later, the story changed.
On September 2, we published three market questions around KLAC, HPE and PG&E.
Two weeks later, every one of them produced new evidence.
One company delivered record revenue and raised its outlook.
Another saw weakness spread across its entire peer group.
And in the third, a market risk that had only been showing up beneath the surface suddenly became explicit.
Yet none of these stories is finished.
That’s why we built Market Tell.
To track the signals that keep moving after the headline is gone — and show you what investors should be watching next.
We’ve put the latest analysis into a new FREE Special Report:
3 Stocks at a Major Turning Point
See what changed… what still hasn’t been resolved… and the signals we’re watching now.