Spot bitcoin ETFs swung back to inflows on Thursday, but BlackRock's IBIT took in more than the entire group. Ether funds lost money for a third straight session.
Bitcoin traded at $86,204 early Friday, up 1.6% on the day after touching $86,754, as buyers returned to U.S. spot ETFs and Federal Reserve officials talked down the chance of another rate increase this month.
The headline flow figure looks healthy: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $102.7 million on Oct. 1, reversing the prior session's outflow. The composition is less comfortable. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone gathered $195.6 million, nearly twice the group's net total. Strip IBIT out and the remaining funds lost a combined $92.9 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC at $60.7 million and Grayscale's GBTC at $31.4 million.
In other words, the market is not seeing broad-based demand so much as a migration toward the largest, most liquid product. For issuers, that concentration matters more than the daily total. For bitcoin's price, it means a single fund's subscriptions are doing much of the work.
Ether lags despite price strength
Spot ether ETFs shed $55.4 million on Thursday, their third consecutive outflow. Fidelity's FETH lost $23.5 million and Grayscale's ETHE $20.4 million, while BlackRock's ETHA recorded no flow at all. Ether itself rose 1.7% overnight to $2,751, so the outflows are coming even as the token holds up.
Monthly totals show the cooling in both products. Bitcoin ETFs gathered $2.65 billion in September, about 25% less than August's $3.52 billion. Ether funds took in $832 million, a decline of roughly 55% from $1.85 billion.
The rate backdrop
The rebound coincided with a sharp shift in Fed expectations. Futures-implied odds of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting fell to about 28% from roughly 70% earlier in the week after Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials "will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time." Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pushed the other way, saying rates need to rise at least another half point.
Bitcoin now sits about 11.6% above its 50-day average of $77,272 but remains roughly 32% below its 52-week high of $126,296. The $85,000 to $88,000 range has acted as supply in recent weeks, and Friday's push into it is the first real test.
What to watch: The September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, where economists expect about 90,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. A hot print could revive October hike odds. In flows, the signal to watch is whether funds other than IBIT turn positive; until they do, the inflow story rests on one ticker.