Macro

Oil Snapped Its Four-Day Slide Wednesday. The Timing Points to Russia, Not the Middle East.

WTI crude bottomed near $80 overnight, then climbed more than 3% by early afternoon, after reports that a major Russian refinery halted processing following a drone strike. WTI crude troughed near $80 between midnight and 5 a.m. ET Wednesda…

Oil Snapped Its Four-Day Slide Wednesday. The Timing Points to Russia, Not the Middle East.
Oil Snapped Its Four-Day Slide Wednesday. The Timing Points to Russia, Not the Middle East.

WTI crude bottomed near $80 overnight, then climbed more than 3% by early afternoon, after reports that a major Russian refinery halted processing following a drone strike.

WTI crude troughed near $80 between midnight and 5 a.m. ET Wednesday, then climbed through the U.S. morning session to trade between $82.60 and $82.80 by early afternoon, a swing of more than 3% off the overnight low. Brent crude traded at $87.41, up from $84.81 a day earlier. The move reverses a four-session decline tied to Hormuz de-escalation talks and a reported pause on further U.S. sanctions against Iran.

Reuters reported, citing industry sources, that Russia's NORSI refinery, the country's fourth-largest and its second-largest gasoline producer, suspended crude processing Wednesday after a Ukrainian drone attack.

Upstream oil majors moved in mixed directions, with Exxon Mobil down 0.54% and Chevron up 0.73%. Refiners extended their rally further: Valero rose 2.5%, Marathon Petroleum rose 2.6%, and Phillips 66 rose 2.9%, even as crude, their primary input cost, rose alongside them, a divergence from the compression crack-spread economics would ordinarily predict.

Oil rebounded after reports of the refinery outage, though some of the move likely also reflects a technical recovery after four straight sessions of selling. Oil's risk premium this week has now moved on two separate, unconnected geopolitical tracks in opposite directions within 48 hours, a reminder that a single de-escalation narrative does not eliminate every other supply-side catalyst still in play.

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