Brent jumped almost 5% early Thursday and stock futures fell, with a 30-year auction ahead. Webull lost nearly a fifth on a House report, and bitcoin slid below Wednesday's low.
Stock futures fell early Thursday as oil jumped.
S&P 500 futures were about 0.5% lower before 8 a.m., and Dow futures were down more than 0.8%. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday just above 7,800, a step below Tuesday's record.
PepsiCo rose about 2% before the bell even as it cut its outlook. Core earnings rose 2% to $2.34 a share, on revenue of $25.27 billion. Both topped estimates, Yahoo Finance reported. The company now sees core earnings growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, down from the low end of 5% to 7%.
Wednesday's sharpest moves came from single documents.
A House panel called Webull a security risk over its China ties. The shares fell about 19% on Wednesday, closing at $5.89. Webull called the report inaccurate. Its findings carry no fine or trading restriction. Robinhood (HOOD) fell about 2.2%.
Black Hills will spend $1.8 billion on gas plants for a Google data center in Cheyenne, Wyoming. The contracts with Google, part of Alphabet (GOOGL), run to 2048. Black Hills rose about 7% on Wednesday. It has not said how it will pay for the build.
One Counterparty Each
Each of Wednesday's big single-stock moves came from one outside party. Black Hills gained a contracted buyer for 22 years. Webull lost value to a report with no penalty attached. PepsiCo went the other way, cutting its outlook and still rising before the bell.
Ex-CIA Analyst Warns: "Trump could create chaos with Russia and China.”
Donald Trump is preparing a move that could reshape global power — and spark massive gains for early investors.
Former CIA analyst Dr. Mark Skousen warns Trump’s hardline stance on China and Russia could ignite a global fight over critical minerals used in AI chips, EVs, and U.S. weapons systems.
When the government quietly took stakes in similar companies, stocks surged 200%–300%+ in weeks.
Now Skousen says the NEXT target is a tiny $5 American company — already backed by Tesla and $130M+ in U.S. grants.
Oil erased Wednesday's dip overnight and then some.
Brent rose almost 5% to near $105 early Thursday, and WTI traded near $92.50 after settling at $88.28 Wednesday. Attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz kept supply worries alive, Reuters reported.
Traders see no quick reopening. A Polymarket contract on the blockade ending in October fell to 18.5 cents from 24.5 early Wednesday, with no official announcement.
Onshore, Hess Midstream fell about 15% on Wednesday, closing at $33.03, after the Chevron deal ended its payout-growth target. Its payout will hold flat through 2027 in exchange for contracts that run to 2045. Chevron (CVX) rose about 2% before the bell with crude.
Longer Waits
The strait's odds and the oil price point the same way. Polymarket traders put a reopening this month below one in five, and Brent is back above $100. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline eases the shortfall but does not end it.
The bond market opens Thursday with a test at 1 p.m.
The 10-year yield stood near 5.3% early Thursday, close to its highest level since 2002. The 30-year was near 5.66%. The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds this afternoon, a day after a strong 10-year sale. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also speaks Thursday.
Brazil's center-right lined up behind Flávio Bolsonaro on Wednesday. His prediction-market odds edged lower anyway.
Polymarket slipped to 84.75 cents and Kalshi to 84, from 85. Both had already risen Tuesday on earlier endorsements. Bolsonaro won the Oct. 4 first round 47.03% to 45.16%, and the runoff is Oct. 25.
Priced Before the Poll
An 84-cent price sits on a two-point first-round lead. The endorsements added names but not price. Runoff polls due Thursday and Friday are the next test of whether voters follow their parties.
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Shareholders of Partners Group Private Equity voted 99.89% to wind down the listed fund.
It will sell its holdings and return cash twice a year, starting in March 2027. The fund published no net asset value with the result and has set no sale schedule.
Prediction platforms are reaching past sports and elections. Kalshi filed for an oil contract that never expires. The WTI-linked perpetual would trade 24 hours a day, five days a week, and faces a 45-day CFTC review. At TOKEN2049, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said the company has no token but is "exploring an onchain asset."
Trading the Calendar
Listed private equity holders chose a slow, scheduled exit over a discount that would not close. They still do not know the amounts. Kalshi's contract removes the expiry date entirely. One product sets an end date, and the other drops it.
Bitcoin kept sliding overnight as oil climbed.
It traded near $82,300 early Thursday, below Wednesday's October low. Ether was near $2,530.
Moody's gave Sky, a stablecoin protocol, a B3 rating. That sits six notches below investment grade. Sky issues the USDS stablecoin. The Sky Frontier Foundation said it is Moody's first rating on any stablecoin protocol. S&P already rates Sky at the equivalent B-.
Hyperliquid's team said it sold $330 million of tokens to one buyer. On-chain trackers show half went to five wallets, 375,000 HYPE each. The other half had not been distributed as of the latest reports.
What Holders Can Check
Both stories turn on what holders can verify. Sky now has a rating that names its weak point, its reserves against stablecoins in circulation. Hyperliquid's holders have a team statement the chain does not yet confirm. Transfers from those five wallets to exchanges would show whether the buyers are selling.
Could This Stock Be “Trump’s Next Big Buy”?
Jim Rickards believes the Trump administration is about to take a direct stake in a tiny $2 stock.
The Trump administration has taken a direct stake in MP Materials, Lithium America, Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth.
Each time, shares sprinted higher. Click here to see why Jim believes this one is next.
Thursday opens with oil higher and bonds on trial.
Brent near $105 keeps inflation pressure in view ahead of CPI on Oct. 14.
The 1 p.m. auction shows whether buyers who took the 10-year at 5.3% will also take the long end. Bitcoin, below its October low, is trading on the same pressure.
3 STOCKS OUR SIGNAL ENGINE SAYS TO WATCH CAREFULLY
Three stocks. Three signals. Two weeks later, the story changed.
On September 2, we published three market questions around KLAC, HPE and PG&E.
Two weeks later, every one of them produced new evidence.
One company delivered record revenue and raised its outlook.
Another saw weakness spread across its entire peer group.
And in the third, a market risk that had only been showing up beneath the surface suddenly became explicit.
Yet none of these stories is finished.
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3 Stocks at a Major Turning Point
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