AI demand looks real. ASML says its planned supply won't fully meet demand in 2027 and 2028. The new question is who pays for the buildout, and at what rate.
Lenders answered first. CoreWeave's bonds slid, Oracle's default insurance hit a record and a $5 billion AI loan sold at a discount.
This week the spenders answer back. Meta and Tesla report Wednesday, hours after a $13 billion 20-year Treasury sale.
Let's get into it.
AI's lenders spoke first. Now the spenders open their books.
The stress hit credit before stocks. CoreWeave (CRWV) lost about a quarter of its value last week. The cost to insure its debt passed 1,000 basis points. Oracle's (ORCL) five-year default swaps hit a record 288.
Volta's $5 billion AI loan cleared at 95 cents, below the 97 to 98 first offered, for a yield above 11%. JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) underwrote only the $1.3 billion piece tied to a data-center lease. The $3.7 billion backed by Nvidia (NVDA) chips was sold on a best-efforts basis.
Banks will lend against a lease. They are less eager to lend against chips.
The market signal?
The debate is now the cost of money. Meta (META) reports Wednesday after the close, with analysts expecting about $63.3 billion in revenue. Tesla (TSLA) reports the same evening. If capex rises as borrowing costs climb, cash-rich giants can absorb it. Leveraged builders cannot.
Ex-CIA Analyst Warns: "Trump could create chaos with Russia and China.”
Donald Trump is preparing a move that could reshape global power — and spark massive gains for early investors.
Former CIA analyst Dr. Mark Skousen warns Trump’s hardline stance on China and Russia could ignite a global fight over critical minerals used in AI chips, EVs, and U.S. weapons systems.
When the government quietly took stakes in similar companies, stocks surged 200%–300%+ in weeks.
Now Skousen says the NEXT target is a tiny $5 American company — already backed by Tesla and $130M+ in U.S. grants.
The hottest inflation week in years, and yields fell anyway
September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Core rose 0.3%, a tenth above forecasts. Producer prices jumped 1.3%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022.
Bonds shrugged. The 10-year touched about 5.33% after CPI, then closed Thursday at 5.10%, a three-week low, and has eased since.
Kalshi's October hike contract jumped from 18 cents to 55 within about 40 minutes of CPI. By Friday's close it was near 14 cents, and about 12 early Monday. The big drop followed words, not numbers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to preview the meeting: "I don't prejudge meetings." Kalshi's December hike contract rose to about 77 cents by Friday afternoon.
The market signal?
Traders now price a skip in October and a hike in December. That needs calm long yields, and Wednesday tests it. The last 30-year sale cleared at 5.618%, the highest auction yield since 2000. A weak 20-year would say the rally was positioning, not conviction.
Nvidia says CoreWeave's capital is getting cheaper. BlackRock sees a shortage.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said CoreWeave's "cost of capital is actually decreasing." Nvidia supplies CoreWeave and has been a shareholder, so the view carries weight and interest.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees it differently: "I'm seeing genuine shortages of capital."
The bond market sides with Fink. CoreWeave sold $1.25 billion of bonds at par in June with a 9.625% coupon. A published report put their yield near 15% last week. "CoreWeave is absolutely the canary in the coal mine," said Max Frumes of 9fin.
The market signal?
When a supplier says a customer's money is getting cheaper and a lender says capital is scarce, believe the price. If other AI cloud names' bonds and default swaps follow, one company's problem becomes a sector's funding cost.
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Strategy fell 10%. Bitcoin barely moved.
Strategy (MSTR) dropped about 10% Friday while bitcoin slipped less than 1%. The trigger was index plumbing, not crypto.
MSCI adopted a rule making "non-operating companies" ineligible for its global indexes after the Nov. 30 close. Reuters reported Strategy and Japan's Metaplanet could be removed. MSCI-tracking funds hold about 3.1% of Strategy's shares.
Funding costs add pressure. In its Oct. 13 filing, Strategy bought 250 bitcoin for $21.5 million but spent $192.4 million retiring preferred stock.
The market signal?
These stocks now trade on index rules and funding costs, not just the coin. Until MSCI names its list Nov. 11, they can fall while bitcoin sits still.
There are two oil prices, and last week they were $20 apart
Brent futures settled Friday at $109.86, up 4.9% on the week. They fell about 2% early Monday, to near $107.60.
Dated Brent, the price of North Sea cargoes loading soon, was $125.975 on Thursday. Futures settled at $105.92 that day. The gap was about $20.
Buyers are paying up for oil they can take now. The IEA released only about 8 million barrels in September. At that pace, the remaining 100 million takes about a year. Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran aims to keep crude high through the Nov. 3 U.S. elections.
November WTI expires Tuesday, and rolls can whip futures around.
The market signal?
Watch the gap, not the headline price. If futures recover toward $110 while the premium shrinks, scarcity is real. If the gap stays near $20 while futures slide, Friday's spike was positioning.
There's a HUGE Downside to This Bull Market (And It's Not a Crash)
It's hard to deny we're in a bull market.
Stocks, real estate, gold, and bitcoin are hitting record highs month after month.
But one multi-millionaire investor says this is unlike any bull run we've seen before.
"There's a dark reason why so many assets are levitating—it's a sign we've entered the Most Terrifying Bull Market in History."
For the full story, click here.
- A week that tests the AI bill
- Tuesday: Netflix (NFLX) reports after the close.
- Wednesday: The $13 billion 20-year sale at 1 p.m. ET, then Meta, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments and Lam Research (LRCX) after the close.
- Thursday: Blackstone (BX) reports. Fitch says nine of 15 non-traded BDCs drew redemption requests above their 5% caps last quarter. Blue Owl's Credit Income Corp. expects to fill about 30% of $3.1 billion in requests.
- Sunday: Brazil's runoff. Polymarket priced Flávio Bolsonaro near 79 cents after Sunday's debate, down from about 86 last Monday. Datafolha shows a 51-49 race.
- The market signal across the week?
- Meta answers for the spenders, the 20-year for Washington and Blackstone for private credit. Strong demand at a higher price is the bull case. Strong demand with nobody lending is the bear case.
That's it for today's Slate. Lenders set the price of the AI boom last week. This week, spenders show if they can pay it. Watch bond yields as closely as earnings.
Today's reply prompt: Is AI's funding squeeze a CoreWeave problem or a sector problem? Hit reply and tell us why.
Same Rate Move. Three Different Bills.
The 10-year went from 4.19% to 5.29% this year. Every company on your screen felt that. They don't feel it on the same schedule.
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Tickers: EQT MS ASML CRWV ORCL JPM GS NVDA META TSLA CIA PULSE CHECK CPI MOVED MIC MSTR MSCI HOOD IEA WTI HUGE NFLX ET IBM LRCX BX MEME IBKR WRB FIS POLL