The market just had its best AI day in months. Nvidia up 9%. Salesforce up 23%. CrowdStrike at a record. The whole thesis validated in a single session.
At 10:00 AM Eastern, two releases land simultaneously that decide whether any of it holds.
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair. Three FOMC members dissented in July wanting to hike. If Warsh does not push back this morning, the market reads silence as endorsement.
At the same time, the BLS publishes its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls. Last year's revision erased 911,000 jobs. If this year's cut is meaningful, the doves get their first hard evidence in months.
One release sets the price of money. The other rewrites the denominator that justifies it. Both at 10:00.
Warsh speaks at 10:00 AM. Nobody knows what he'll say.
Kevin Warsh became Fed chair on May 22, confirmed 54-45, the narrowest margin in the job's history. Since then he has communicated less than any chair in modern memory. No dot plot. Half-length statements. Today he stands at the most scrutinised lectern in global finance for the first time.
The BofA fund manager survey found 69% expect a neutral speech. That is exactly what makes Friday dangerous. Neutral is not the safe outcome. Neutral is the priced outcome. CME futures show roughly 31% odds of a September hike and 74% by December. If Warsh offers nothing to push back against the three July dissenters who wanted to hike, the market prices that as passive agreement.
Powell used Jackson Hole in 2022 to deliver the eight-minute speech that reset the entire rate cycle. Warsh has signalled he will not repeat it. But the July minutes already did the talking for him.
The market signal?
Listen for what Warsh does not say. If he skips the July dissents and stays inside the symposium theme, the bond market writes its own conclusion: the chair is not fighting the hawks. The 30-year retests 5.30% and every duration-sensitive asset reprices before the weekend.
AI's "All In" Moment
In the dot-com days, former Wall Street money manager Alexander Green bought Apple under $1. Netflix at $1.62. Amazon under $2. (Split adjusted.)
Now he's doing the same with AI.
And he says it's the biggest opportunity he's seen in 40 years.
Every few decades, a window opens that can change your financial life forever.
Thursday was the AI trade's best day since August 4. Friday is thinning.
The S&P 500 rose 0.72% Thursday to 7,730.99. The Nasdaq jumped 1.57% to 26,541.35. Best day for both since August 4.
Nvidia (NVDA) surged 8.7% to roughly $229, market cap back above $5.5 trillion. Salesforce (CRM) posted its best session ever, up 22.6% to $252.05 on a Q2 beat and a new Anthropic partnership. CrowdStrike (CRWD) climbed 8.3%.
Then after hours, the tape split. Marvell (MRVL) dropped 7.6% to $223 despite record revenue. PayPal (PYPL) cratered 12.7% after Stripe and Advent walked away from a $50 billion-plus bid. Friday premarket: Nasdaq futures down 0.30%, S&P off 0.12%. Nobody is committing ahead of 10:00 AM.
The market signal?
Thursday was the AI trade on earnings fuel. Friday is the macro test. If Warsh and the BLS deliver dovish surprises, Thursday's gains extend. If either goes hawkish, the after-hours cracks become the template.
Jensen called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company.
Jensen Huang called Marvell Technology (MRVL) "the next trillion-dollar company" at Computex in June. Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell in March. Market cap at the time: roughly $192 billion.
Thursday after hours, Marvell reported record Q2 revenue of $2.74 billion, up 37% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.93 consensus. Data center revenue climbed 46%. Q3 guidance of $3.15 billion topped the $3.03 billion Street estimate. The stock fell 7.6%.
Second time this month an AI infrastructure name has de-rated on a beat. Vertiv lost $12.3 billion earlier in August with no bad news. The pattern: AI demand is intact, but the 30-year at 5.23% is repricing every long-duration asset regardless.
Marvell's specific problem was timing. Revenue from its Google custom chip partnership likely will not arrive until fiscal 2029. Three years of waiting where patience costs 5% per year. The stock had run 188% year-to-date. "Strong" was not enough.
The market signal?
The Marvell-Vertiv pattern is now a framework. In a 5%-plus long-bond world, AI infrastructure names need near-term surprises, not distant ones. That makes Warsh the most important variable for AI hardware valuations today.
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The $360 billion company that nobody wants for $53 billion
In 2021, PayPal (PYPL) was worth $360 billion. On Thursday night, Stripe and Advent International walked away from a $50 billion-plus bid. The stock dropped 12.7% in after hours to $53.66.
PayPal peaked at $310 during the pandemic boom. Then Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Stripe arrived. Three CEOs in under a year. 2025 revenue grew just 4.8%. In July, Stripe and Advent offered $60.50 per share, roughly $53 billion. The board called it inadequate. Thursday night, Bloomberg reported the consortium had dropped the pursuit entirely.
The board now has to prove the standalone plan beats the rejected bid. That means reaccelerating branded checkout (1% growth in Q4 2025), monetising Venmo, and executing an AI payments strategy investors have not bought into. The stock trades below the price Stripe was willing to pay.
The market signal?
If branded checkout does not reaccelerate in two quarters, the board's rejection of $60.50 becomes one of the most expensive governance calls in fintech history. The buyer of last resort just left.
$40 trillion in debt, $7 billion per day
The US national debt crossed $40 trillion on August 19. That is roughly $117,000 per American. The debt doubled in the last ten years. It adds $7 billion per day. Annual interest payments now exceed $1.1 trillion, more than the defence budget and more than Medicare.
The connection to everything above: the 30-year at 5.23% is not just an inflation trade. It is a fiscal trade. The deficit runs above $2 trillion per year with no political consensus to close it. The Supreme Court struck down several Trump tariffs earlier this year, forcing the Treasury to refund over $100 billion in illegally collected import taxes.
The market signal?
This is why the bond market does not fully trust any dovish Fed signal. Even if Warsh sounds patient this morning, term premium stays elevated as long as deficits run at this pace. The AI trade, the housing trade, and the credit trade all live downstream.
Could This Stock Be “Trump’s Next Big Buy”?
Jim Rickards believes the Trump administration is about to take a direct stake in a tiny $2 stock.
The Trump administration has taken a direct stake in MP Materials, Lithium America, Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth.
Each time, shares sprinted higher. Click here to see why Jim believes this one is next.
- The BLS preliminary benchmark revision drops at 10:00 AM, the same minute Warsh speaks. Last year's revision erased 911,000 jobs. July payrolls printed at negative 23,000. A second large cut hands the doves their first real evidence in months. A small revision keeps the hawks in control.
- Q2 corporate profits surged $400.9 billion in Wednesday's GDP second estimate, sharply higher than the $74.4 billion increase in Q1. Companies are earning more even as GDP slows to 1.5%. The split-screen widens.
- The September FOMC is three weeks out, September 16. Today's two releases set the boundaries. Dovish Warsh plus a large benchmark cut equals no hike. Silent Warsh plus a small revision means 25 basis points is live.
- The market signal across all three? This Friday acts like a Monday. Whatever Warsh says and whatever the BLS prints will set the tone for all of next week.
That's it for today's Slate. One speech, one revision, one Friday that decides how next week opens. Stay close to the feed.
Today's reply prompt: If Warsh disappoints the bond bulls, which sector gets hit hardest by Monday?
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