Adjusted earnings rose to $2.20 a share as realized prices offset an 8.5% drop in production. The stock fell as gold headed for its worst week in more than four months.
Newmont's third quarter showed how much a gold miner's earnings depend on the price of gold, and the timing of the report made the point uncomfortable.
Newmont earned $2.20 a share on an adjusted basis, up from $1.71 a year earlier and above the $2.05 consensus from LSEG. Revenue was $6.36 billion. Net income was $2.48 billion, or $2.35 a share. Free cash flow came to $1.9 billion, and the company said it had returned $1.9 billion through buybacks and dividends since its last earnings call. It declared a dividend of 26 cents a share.
Price did the work
Attributable gold production was about 1.3 million ounces, down 8.5% from a year earlier. The company sold that gold at an average realized price of $4,317 an ounce, up 22%. All-in sustaining costs, the industry's main measure of the cost of production, were $1,454 an ounce.
That spread, roughly $2,860 an ounce between the realized price and sustaining costs, is what produced the record third-quarter adjusted profit. Volume subtracted from the result; price more than made up for it.
Newmont said it remains positioned to achieve its full-year production guidance and improved its full-year cost outlook, lowering its all-in sustaining cost guidance to about $1,520 an ounce from $1,590. It expects the fourth quarter to be its strongest for production. Free cash flow fell about 13% from the second quarter because of working capital and capital spending.
The problem with the price
Gold futures traded at about $4,031 an ounce early Friday, about 7% below Newmont's average realized price for the third quarter. Gold fell 2.6% on Thursday, as measured by the SPDR Gold Shares fund, and is heading for its steepest weekly decline in more than four months. Reuters tied the slide to higher oil prices bolstering expectations that rates will stay high, though bond markets the same day trimmed bets on further Fed increases.
If prices hold near current levels, the fourth quarter's higher volumes would be sold at lower prices, which would narrow the margin that drove the beat.
Newmont shares fell 2.6% to $114.11 on Thursday before the report and were indicated about 2% lower early Friday.
Cash now, costs later
The bullish view is that Newmont is generating large amounts of cash at current prices, is returning it to shareholders, and expects both higher production in the fourth quarter and better costs.
The cautious view is that the quarter was a price story, production is still shrinking, and management has said production growth in 2027 will come with higher cost pressures.
What to watch
The gold price into year-end, fourth-quarter production against the company's guidance, and detail on 2027 costs.