The index provider will bar "non-operating" companies from its global benchmarks starting with the November review, a rule that could push out firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet. A two-filing buffer for current members decides who goes when.
The question hanging over bitcoin-treasury stocks for most of this year has an answer, and a date.
MSCI said after Thursday's U.S. close that it "will implement the proposal to define and classify non-operating companies as ineligible for inclusion" in its Global Investable Market Indexes, "with minor modifications." The change takes effect in the November 2026 index review, as of the close on Nov. 30. The roster of companies that fail the test arrives on Nov. 11.
How the test works
Companies first face a screen for "substantial operating assets." Those that fail are measured against five financial ratios, and a company is ineligible "if it is flagged on four or more of the five."
The key detail is a buffer. Companies not yet in the indexes are ineligible if they fail in either of their two most recent annual filing periods. "Current constituents will be removed only if they fail the ineligibility screen in each of the two most recent annual filing periods," MSCI said, and it may use the latest interim filing.
MSCI is also ending the interim measures it adopted on Oct. 10, 2025, for companies whose digital assets make up at least half of total assets. Those measures froze increases to their share counts and inclusion factors in the indexes and deferred additions and size-segment moves.
Who is exposed
MSCI posted a list of current index members potentially affected, with the final list due Nov. 11. Its simulation, published with the August consultation and based on May data, flagged Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake, among others. Strategy argued in an Aug. 31 letter that the proposal "would have no meaningful impact on Strategy's business, but it would profoundly harm MSCI's reputation."
Analysts at JPMorgan estimated late last year that removal could lead to about $2.8 billion of outflows from Strategy stock. Strategy's market value is about $61 billion.
The reaction
Strategy closed Thursday at $151.29, up 5.62% in a broad rally for crypto stocks, before MSCI's announcement. In extended trading before dawn on Friday it was quoted near $148, about 2.2% lower. In Tokyo on Friday, Metaplanet gained 4.53%, finishing at 277 yen. SharpLink, another treasury company, was little changed after hours.
Market implications
One reading is negative. Benchmark funds are steady buyers of index members' shares. For treasury companies, that buying helps absorb the stock they sell to raise money for bitcoin, so losing it could slow the whole cycle.
A second reading is that much of this was priced in after August's simulation. An estimated $2.8 billion of outflows is small relative to Strategy's market value, Metaplanet rose after the announcement and Strategy's after-hours dip was modest.
A third reading favors the survivors. Lifting last year's freeze means treasury companies that pass the test can again receive normal increases in index weight, a potential source of new passive buying.
The buffer may matter most. For a company already in the indexes, timing turns on one question: has it failed the test in each of its last two annual reports, or only in the latest one?
What to watch
MSCI's Nov. 11 list, Strategy's third-quarter report, and any change in how treasury companies describe their operating businesses before the screen is applied. Any removals become effective after trading on Nov. 30, when index funds rebalance.