Analysts expect about $31.50 a share on roughly $51 billion of revenue, in line with the company's own guidance, as one analyst argues long-term supply contracts have changed what memory investors are buying.
When Micron Technology reports after Wednesday's close, analysts expect earnings roughly ten times larger than a year ago.
The call is set for 2:30 p.m. Mountain time. A survey of 33 analysts points to adjusted earnings of about $31.50 a share, against $3.03 a year earlier, and revenue of about $51 billion, against $11.3 billion. Micron's own guidance, issued in June, called for revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and adjusted earnings of $31, plus or minus $1.
Consensus sits in the upper half of both ranges. Options prices imply a move of about 10% in either direction after the report, one of the largest for a large company this season.
The multiple
On analysts' estimates of profit over the coming year, Micron is valued at about 6.5 times, against roughly 44 times for Advanced Micro Devices and 59 times for Intel.
Gil Luria, a managing director at D.A. Davidson, says the gap reflects an old view of the business. Micron's stock, he said, is trading as if "the memory cycle is already over," even as AI companies "across the board have been consistently indicating they do not have nearly the amount of memory they need."
"The memory cycle is The Cycle," Luria wrote, arguing that investors expect it to end while "underwriting continued CPU growth through 2030."
How memory is sold
Luria's case rests on how memory is now sold. For most of its history, memory was bought on price, with one supplier's chips largely swappable for another's. High-bandwidth memory works differently. Only three major companies make it, Micron among them, and each version is co-designed with a customer for a particular AI system. Micron's largest customers have also signed long-term supply agreements to secure chips during the shortage.
"Micron is no longer the same company it was in 2023," he said, referring to the last downturn, when revenue and profit sank.
The shortage shows up on the buyers' side too. Higher memory costs have pushed Apple to raise prices, and to eat part of the increase so customers do not face sticker shock.
The calendar
Beyond the headline figures, the outlook will draw attention. Guidance for the fiscal first quarter, the share of revenue under long-term agreements and any comment on high-bandwidth memory pricing for 2027 will show whether investors are right to price a peak. The Roundhill Memory ETF rose about 2.9% on Tuesday ahead of the report.