Eli Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast by $5.5 billion at the midpoint, to $91 billion to $92 billion, and its shares rose about 6%. About $900 million of third-quarter revenue came from one-time benefits, and a large research charge lowered its reported earnings forecast.
Eli Lilly's third quarter was a demand story. It was also a pricing story, and investors chose to focus on the first.
Revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, well above the roughly $22.6 billion analysts expected. The company said volume rose 53% and realized prices fell 15%. Mounjaro had sales of $10.72 billion, up 65%, including $5.0 billion in the United States, up 41%, and $5.7 billion abroad, up 93%. Zepbound sold $5.35 billion, up 49%.
"Lilly had another strong quarter, exceeding our prior expectations and allowing us to raise our full-year outlook," said David Ricks, the chief executive.
What the headline includes
About $900 million of the quarter's revenue came from one-time benefits, Lilly said, including $410 million of milestone payments related to Jardiance and changes to estimates for rebates and discounts. Excluding those, revenue would have been about $23.5 billion and growth about 34%, by our arithmetic. That is still well above expectations.
The pricing line matters more for the long run. A 15% decline in realized prices means Lilly is selling far more medicine for less per unit, which can reflect lower list prices, discounts or the mix of channels and countries. The business is still growing fast, but more of that growth is coming from volume, which requires manufacturing capacity, and less from price.
Two forecasts that point in different directions
Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion, from $85 billion to $87 billion. Its forecast for non-GAAP earnings, by contrast, is now $35.00 to $36.00 a share, $0.50 lower at the midpoint than the previous $35.50 to $36.50.
Both are consistent. Lilly said the underlying business added $4.07 a share at the midpoint, more than offset by a $4.57-a-share charge for acquired research and development. That charge is the cost of buying drug candidates, and it is excluded from neither its GAAP nor its non-GAAP figures. Non-GAAP earnings in the quarter were $7.48 a share, up 7%, against an estimate of about $5.68.
The reaction
Lilly shares rose about 5.7% to about $1,362 in early afternoon, from $1,288.30.
Volume machine or price squeeze?
The volume view: demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound is rising faster than forecast in the United States and growing even faster abroad, and the company raised its revenue forecast by more than the one-time items in the quarter.
The price view: revenue per unit is falling quickly, part of the beat was one-time, and the company is spending heavily to buy new drug candidates, which is lowering reported earnings.
What to watch
Fourth-quarter pricing and volume, supply capacity for Mounjaro and Zepbound, the pace of acquired research charges, and results from Novo Nordisk.