Polymarket priced Gadi Eisenkot at about 55 cents and Benjamin Netanyahu at about 28 cents early on Tuesday, a few hours after polls opened. The contracts pay on who becomes prime minister, which in Israel can take weeks of coalition talks to decide.
Israelis are voting on Tuesday, and the prediction market on the outcome is asking a narrower question than the exit polls will answer.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time, 1 a.m. Eastern, and close at 10 p.m. local time, 4 p.m. Eastern, when exit polls are released. About 7.33 million people are eligible to vote.
On Polymarket, the contract on whether Gadi Eisenkot will be the next prime minister traded at 54.75 cents at 4:46 a.m. Eastern. The contract on Benjamin Netanyahu traded at 27.5 cents. Both have moved around since Monday afternoon: Eisenkot as high as 57.55 cents and as low as 52.65 cents, and Netanyahu up to 30.5 cents in the early evening.
What the contract pays on
These are not bets on which party wins the most seats. They pay on who becomes prime minister, and the contract requires a formal swearing-in. In Israel's parliamentary system, that depends on who can assemble a governing coalition in the Knesset, and the leader of the largest party is not guaranteed to do so.
That difference matters for how to read the prices. Eisenkot at about 55 cents is a market judgment on coalition arithmetic as much as on the vote. Official results are expected by Nov. 4, and coalition negotiations could take weeks beyond that.
Where the money is
Trading has been heavier on Netanyahu. His contract traded about $2.55 million over 24 hours, against about $233,000 for Eisenkot's. That may reflect traders taking positions on whether the incumbent can hold on, rather than on who replaces him.
Overnight moves should be treated with caution. Swings of several cents on Eisenkot's contract, with about $150,000 of liquidity on its order book, can come from a few trades. The first information that bears on the result arrives with turnout updates through the day and the exit polls at 4 p.m.
The election-day record
There have been complaints to the Central Elections Committee over missing ballot slips and alleged voter tracking by Likud. Israeli markets were steady going into the vote: the shekel was little changed against the dollar at about 3.07 early on Tuesday. Investors in Israeli assets have seen potential upside in a Netanyahu defeat, Reuters has reported.
Two readings
One reading is that the market has priced a change of government. Eisenkot is a clear favorite on a contract that already accounts for coalition-building, and the heavy volume on Netanyahu's contract has not pushed his price much above 30 cents.
The other is that 55 cents is not much of a favorite. Nearly half of the probability sits elsewhere, overnight prices have moved several cents on thin books, and coalition talks can produce outcomes that neither the vote count nor the market expected.
What to watch
Turnout updates through the day, the 4 p.m. Eastern exit polls, the count overnight, the official results by Nov. 4, and the first statements from party leaders on coalition partners.