Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. forces overnight, ending a three-day drop in oil. The Fed announces its decision today. Microsoft and Meta report after the close. Bitcoin slipped toward $63,500 after the Senate delayed the CLARITY Act.
The market entered today expecting one catalyst.It woke up with three.Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. forces overnight, ending three days of calm and pushing oil sharply higher. U.S. equity futures weakened as investors returned to inflation and supply concerns.S&P 500 futures fell 0.12%. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.49%. Dow futures dropped about 60 points.Asia also turned lower.South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 8%, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, triggering its second market-wide trading halt this week.Tuesday looked very different.The Dow gained 537 points and the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% as semiconductor stocks continued to weaken even with lower oil prices.Today shifts the focus again.The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET.Microsoft (MSFT) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close. Wall Street expects EPS of about $4.23 on revenue between $87.5 billion and $87.7 billion.Meta also reports, with consensus EPS near $7.21.The broader question remains unchanged.The four largest hyperscalers are expected to spend about $725 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, up roughly 77% from about $410 billion in 2025.Investors now care less about revenue growth and more about whether AI spending is producing returns.The SignalIran changed the morning. The Fed shapes the afternoon. Microsoft and Meta decide how investors judge the AI trade tonight.
New "AI Fuel" discovered near Grand CanyonA small drilling crew just punched through to a discovery big enough to meet global electricity demand 140 times over, according to the International Energy Agency...Right near the Grand Canyon.See why Google, Berkshire Hathaway and the President of the United States are rushing to grab it >>Oil reversed quickly.Brent settled Tuesday at $84.09.Overnight, it rebounded toward $87 after Iran launched missiles at U.S. forces.WTI climbed back near $82.The rebound erased much of the optimism created by recent diplomacy.Iran and Oman continue discussing the future of the Strait of Hormuz, including a proposal that would allow ships to pay voluntary transit fees instead of mandatory tolls.The proposal remains only a framework.The pattern has become familiar.Diplomacy lowers prices.Military action brings the risk premium back.Brent has moved more than 15% in either direction three different times during the past six weeks.That volatility continues feeding inflation concerns just hours before the Fed decision.Energy SignalOil spent three days pricing diplomacy. One overnight attack reminded markets how quickly that premium can return. 