A 12% jump shows investors like the pivot. The open question is how Kalshi, Polymarket and the sportsbooks will view a rival built on the same feed they buy.
Genius Sports, the company that supplies official live data to some of the largest names in sports betting and prediction markets, is now selling directly to consumers.
The company has introduced Prediction.com through Legend, its consumer-facing division. The product aggregates prediction-market prices and multi-leg pricing, built on the same live sports data the company licenses to its business clients.
Investors cheered. Shares finished the Sept. 25 session near $6.51, up 12.25%, recovering from an intraday low under $6. That implies a prior close of about $5.80 and a single-day gain of roughly 71 cents a share.
Supplier, and now competitor
The move is a bet on vertical integration. Genius Sports holds official data relationships with Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings and FanDuel, which puts it at the center of the fastest-growing corner of the wagering market. A consumer product lets the company capture some of the margin that currently flows to those platforms rather than just charging them for inputs.
The risk is channel conflict. Data suppliers typically avoid competing with their own customers because it gives those customers a reason to seek alternatives or push for better terms at renewal. How much that matters depends on whether Prediction.com functions as a comparison layer that sends traffic to existing platforms, or as a destination that keeps users for itself. The company has framed it as an aggregator, which suggests the former.
Regulatory backdrop
The launch comes as the legal ground under sports prediction contracts is shifting. On the same day Genius Sports shares jumped, a federal appeals court ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts are subject to state gambling law in Ohio and Tennessee, deepening a split among the circuits. A product that aggregates prices rather than taking positions may face less direct exposure to that fight, but its value depends on the platforms it aggregates staying open in as many states as possible.
What to watch
The key markers are any disclosure from Genius Sports on how Prediction.com generates revenue, whether through referral fees, advertising or its own trading, and any response from its platform clients when data contracts come up for renewal. A referral model would ease concerns about channel conflict. Evidence that the company intends to keep users and their trading activity in-house would sharpen them.