TQ Evening Briefing
GE is buying the company that makes its jet engine blades. Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit $20 billion of US goods. Amgen fell because Novartis's drug failed. WTI rose for the sixth straight session.
Oil Up Six Days Straight. The Dow Down 500. Chips Held.
The Dow fell over 600 points. The S&P dropped 0.58%. The Nasdaq held near flat as chip stocks surged. Intel gained 9%. AMD rose 6%. Broadcom added 3%.
WTI climbed above $93 for the sixth straight session after Houthi militants struck Saudi energy infrastructure overnight. Goldman Sachs warned WTI could hit $120 if attacks broaden beyond Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 4.8%. Canada's retaliatory tariffs went live.
September hike odds stayed at 60%. PPI lands Thursday. CPI lands Friday. The tape split cleanly between AI hardware and everything else.
TQ Trade Implication
Old economy fell. AI hardware held. Energy broke to new highs. Three tapes in one session, and only one of them is trading the CPI print. Chips moved on their own news and energy on Hormuz. The Dow's 500 points is the part that answers to Friday.
In January, Gold Touched Nearly $5,600 an Ounce. Today It's Around $4,100.
So the story's over, right?
Then explain this.
The metal is still leaving the vaults. Physical deliveries still running at levels the exchange rarely processed before. Central banks still buying. Dealers charging 30-40% premiums over paper price for real coins.
When price falls but physical demand doesn't — only one of those two is telling the truth.
The paper market sets the price. The physical market sets the deadline.
Anyone who wished they'd bought miners before January's run just got handed the entry back.
One company I've been tracking controls an 88 million ounce deposit — trading near $4 billion. About 1% of the value of its metal in the ground.
That gap is the whole opportunity.
GE Aerospace Bought Its Own Blade Supplier for $11.75B. The Oligopoly Is Breaking.
GE Aerospace (GE) is acquiring Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75 billion. CPP makes blades and vanes for jet engines and gas turbines. Only four companies in the world do this. GE has been a CPP customer for over 15 years.
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) fell 7% immediately. GE makes up 11% of Howmet's revenue and over 15% of its earnings. Losing GE orders changes Howmet's entire margin story.
Then add the other piece. Last week SpaceX confirmed it would start making its own blades internally. Two of the biggest aerospace customers are vertically integrating the same supply chain simultaneously. The blade-and-vane oligopoly was untouchable for decades. It is now under pressure from both directions.
TQ Execution Bias
GE's contracts with Howmet come up for renewal in the 2030s. The stock is pricing near-term certainty. The contract timeline tells a different story. Track the renewals.
Amgen Fell Because Novartis's Drug Failed. That Is How Pipeline Risk Gets Shared.
Novartis (NVS) said its pelacarsen drug failed to reduce cardiovascular risk in a late-stage trial. Amgen (AMGN) fell nearly 10%. Amgen had nothing to do with that failure.
Amgen's olpasiran targets the same mechanism as pelacarsen. When a drug fails in one company's hands, the whole therapeutic class gets discounted. Investors owning Amgen for olpasiran optionality sold on Novartis's result.
Eli Lilly (LLY) also fell on a rival compound in the same space. Novartis itself collapsed 10% in Europe, its worst day on record. This was its third clinical failure in eight days. Del-desiran, rap-cel, and pelacarsen all failed inside one week.
TQ Execution Bias
Amgen's olpasiran targets a different patient population than pelacarsen. The class selloff may be overdone. Wait for mechanism differentiation data before re-entering.
Jim Rickards Predicts: Trump's Next Big Buy
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Canada Tariffs Are Live. Trump Threatened Bombardier. Both Sides Are Escalating.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect on $20 billion of US goods. Steel, appliances, dairy, seafood, and electronics all face levies of 15-50%. These mirror what the US imposed on Canadian goods last week.
Trump posted that Bombardier cannot sell aircraft in the US unless it manufactures there. No formal action has followed yet. The pattern holds: every Canadian policy move generates a targeted US counter before the week ends.
January 1 is the next hard deadline. That is when US tariffs on Canadian metals and vehicles rise to 50%. Neither government has signaled any appetite to negotiate before then.
TQ Execution Bias
January is the real pressure point both sides are pricing around. US domestic steel and fabrication names hold the tariff trade. Own them until the binary resolves.
- The US government took equity stakes in three quantum computing firms. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Quantinuum (QNT) received a combined $300 million CHIPS Act deal. All three rose at least 4%. Quantum computing just got its first direct federal equity backing.
- Bloom Energy (BE) is joining the S&P 500 on September 21 and surged 8-11%. The fuel cell company is up 190% this year on AI data center power demand. Passive funds must buy before inclusion. That is a hard deadline, not an estimate.
- Boston Scientific (BSX) lowered full-year guidance after its August cyberattack. The company still cannot quantify the full damage and is down 52% over the past year. Analysts say long-term market share loss is unlikely, but the near-term revenue hole is real.
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GE bought a supplier. Canada tariffs went live.
Amgen fell for someone else's failure. WTI rose for the sixth straight day. Chips held while the Dow fell 500.
PPI Thursday. CPI Friday. Both print before September 16. Goldman Sachs says WTI hits $120 if Hormuz stays shut. If energy pulls Friday's headline number higher after two calm prints, 60% hike odds move higher before Warsh walks into the room. One number decides the next two weeks. It lands Friday.
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