Forecasters expect 84,000 September jobs against August's initial 162,000. August openings of 7.08 million were the fewest in five months, with layoffs and quits both near their lows.
The U.S. labor market in August had few openings, few layoffs and few people leaving.
Employers listed 7.08 million open jobs at the end of August, the Labor Department said, down about 256,000 from a revised 7.34 million in July and the lowest in five months. Forecasters had expected 7.2 million. The declines were concentrated in professional and business services and in health care.
The job openings rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The hiring rate edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%, and the layoff rate slipped to 1% from 1.1%.
For a second straight month, 1.9% of workers quit. That rate matches the lowest level since 2015, outside the pandemic period. About 3.1 million people left their jobs voluntarily in August, unchanged from July.
Churn
Quits are one of the more closely watched parts of the report because they reflect workers' confidence that they can find something better. When fewer people quit, employers tend to face less pressure to raise pay to keep them.
Nancy Vanden Houten, Oxford Economics' lead U.S. economist, tied the two together: "Given the weak pace of hiring, workers are reluctant to leave their current jobs."
Layoffs near historic lows sit alongside an unemployment rate that has held at 4.1%. Hires of about 5.2 million and total separations of about 5.1 million were both little changed, leaving a market with low turnover in both directions. Economists have taken to calling it "low hire, low fire."
The household view
The Conference Board's September consumer survey, released at the same time, pointed in the same direction. Asked about the half-year ahead, 14% of respondents said they expect job availability to improve. The gap between consumers who say jobs are plentiful and those who say they are hard to get fell to 1.7%.
Friday's test
August payrolls broke from that pattern. The first estimate showed 162,000 new jobs, the largest gain in five months. Forecasters expect September's report on Friday to show 84,000, about 52% of that figure.
The Fed raised rates earlier this month and futures markets price further increases. Shrinking openings, flat quits and still-low layoffs give policymakers a mixed read. Unemployment near 4.1% suggests little slack, while the low quits rate suggests workers may have less leverage to win raises by switching jobs.
The first number to watch Friday is payrolls against the 84,000 forecast. The second is the unemployment rate. A rise from 4.1% would suggest that low layoffs are starting to give way. A steady rate with weak hiring would extend the pattern in Tuesday's data.