Meta and Tesla report Wednesday after the close. The Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds the same afternoon. Fed officials have gone quiet, with the October hike bet near 14 cents.
Last week answered the demand question. TSMC (TSM) beat its own forecast, and ASML (ASML) said it cannot build enough machines through 2028.
It left the funding question open. Default insurance on CoreWeave (CRWV) passed 1,000 basis points. Oracle's (ORCL) hit a record. The 10-year yield still fell to 5.10% Thursday, after both price reports ran hot.
September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Long-term yields fell anyway. Kalshi's October hike contract hit 55 cents Wednesday and traded at 14 cents early Friday.
By Friday afternoon, the Nasdaq was down about 4% for the week. Brent traded near $109.
Fed officials are now in their quiet period. The Fed meets Oct. 27 and 28, so no official will speak to this week's data.
The calendar is light on inflation and heavy on earnings. S&P Global's flash business surveys close the week Friday at 9:45 a.m., with the composite expected at 57.6, from 58.4. The six items below split into four dated events and two open questions.
The markets are in a dramatically different place than they were in January.
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THE RATE-SENSITIVE TAPE
September housing starts arrive at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists expect a 1.30 million annual pace, from 1.275 million in August. Monday's builder survey at 10 a.m. is expected at 31, from 32.
Freddie Mac's mortgage rate reached 7.40% earlier this month, its highest since November 2023.
General Motors reports before Tuesday's open, a read on car buyers paying higher loan rates. Capital One (COF) and United Airlines (UAL) report after Tuesday's close. One shows how card borrowers handle 5% money. The other shows what fuel costs an airline.
Investor Signal
Are households and builders still absorbing high rates and fuel? Starts well below 1.3 million would point to rates biting before the Fed's next move. Rising card losses at Capital One would add a credit warning outside AI. Homebuilders, card lenders and airlines are most exposed.
THE 20-YEAR TEST
The Treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds. Bids are due at 1 p.m. Eastern.
September's sale cleared at 5.42%, with modestly below-average demand. The 20-year traded at 5.48% Thursday. That bond has yielded more than the 30-year, a sign of thin demand at that maturity.
On Thursday, the Treasury also announces the sizes of next week's 2-, 5- and 7-year note sales. Earlier this month, the 10-year and 30-year sales drew above-average demand. The 30-year cleared at 5.618%, the highest auction yield since 2000.
Investor Signal
Did last week's bond rally bring in real buyers? A sale that clears below the 1 p.m. market yield would say long-term demand has followed prices lower. A weak result would suggest the rally rested on fear more than buying. Mortgage rates and long-dated corporate bonds take the first hit.
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AI'S BIGGEST BUYER REPORTS
Meta Platforms (META) releases results after the close. Its call starts at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Analysts expect revenue of about $63.3 billion, FMP data show.
Tesla (TSLA) follows, with a 5:30 p.m. call. It has already reported 486,532 deliveries for the quarter. Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments and IBM also report that evening.
Meta's spending plan matters more than its ad sales. Its data-center bills flow straight to chipmakers and to the lenders now charging more.
Investor Signal
Will the biggest AI buyers keep paying with their own cash? A raised spending plan funded from cash flow would support chip orders without adding to the credit strain. A plan that leans on new debt would land in a market already pricing stress. Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and the AI cloud lessors are most exposed.
THE PRIVATE LENDER
Blackstone (BX) reports before the open. Analysts expect $1.28 a share. Weekly jobless claims follow at 8:30 a.m., with 200,000 expected after 199,000.
Private credit now sits at the center of AI finance, as AI's builders find capital harder to raise. JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among the banks exploring sales of data-center loan risk, the Financial Times reported.
Savers are slower too. Fitch said nine private credit funds remain above their 5% quarterly withdrawal cap.
Investor Signal
Is private money still willing to take the risk public markets now price higher? Strong credit inflows at Blackstone would say yes. Slower fundraising or rising withdrawals would point to the gap widening. A jump in claims well above 200,000 would add a labor warning to the credit one.
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Several large AI debt deals have no signed terms. Broadcom (AVGO) is arranging more than $50 billion tied to its OpenAI chip. Oracle (ORCL) is in talks on an off-balance-sheet chip vehicle. SpaceX (SPCX) is in early talks to raise about $40 billion.
The last signed price was steep. Volta's $5 billion AI loan priced at 95 cents on the dollar, below the 97 to 98 cents first offered. CoreWeave's (CRWV) shares hit a new low Thursday, bounced, then fell again Friday.
Investor Signal
What will lenders charge the next big AI borrower? A large deal signed near past spreads would say last week's stress stayed with the weakest names. Wider terms or a delay would say it is spreading up the chain. CoreWeave's swap cost falling back below 1,000 basis points would be the first sign of relief.
Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran aims to keep crude high through the Nov. 3 U.S. elections. The container ship GFS Pride sank near Hormuz last week. Saudi Arabia pumped more than 2 million extra barrels a day in September.
Polymarket's contract on a U.S. announcement ending the blockade by Oct. 31 fell to as low as 7.5 cents Thursday.
Investor Signal
Can the Gulf premium hold with more Saudi oil and released stocks? A firm reply from Tehran could pull Brent toward $100. A new attack on Saudi sites would push it higher and revive the hike bet before the Fed meets. Airlines, refiners and the two-year yield are most exposed.
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Last week showed AI demand holding. This week shows who pays for it.
Meta speaks for the buyers, Blackstone for the private lenders and the 20-year sale for the long-term bond market. If all three hold, the strain stays with the weakest borrowers. If one breaks, the Fed walks into its meeting with a credit problem on top of an inflation one.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
We traced three: IBKR, WRB and FIS. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
Free report, texted to your phone.