Heating oil futures fell about 2.6% while Brent finished early afternoon slightly higher. China approved about 3.7 million tons of October fuel exports, and Hurricane Isaias strengthened to a Category 3 storm headed for the Florida Panhandle.
October 9, 2026
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Oil traders spent Friday splitting the barrel. Crude held its ground. The fuel made from it did not.
Heating oil futures, the U.S. benchmark for diesel, traded near $4.75 a gallon in early afternoon, down about 2.6% from Thursday's settlement, after touching $4.70. Brent crude was at $104.78 a barrel, up about 0.5%, and U.S. crude at $92.00, up 0.6%. Gasoline futures slipped about 0.3%.
A round trip in crude
The crude market had a volatile session. Brent dropped to $102.41 overnight, about 1.8% below Thursday's close, after the president said the United States would not strike Iran before the Nov. 3 elections. By early afternoon it had recovered all of that and more. No single development explains the afternoon recovery. Attacks on shipping in the Gulf have continued, and a hurricane was bearing down on U.S. refining country.
China's fuel
Diesel had its own news. China has approved October exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel totaling about 3.7 million metric tons, according to people familiar with the decision, after Chinese refiners paused shipments during the Golden Week holiday that began Oct. 1. In September, Chinese refiners had been expected to export slightly more than 4 million tons.
China is a swing supplier of refined products to Asia, and its curbs since March, imposed to protect domestic supply when the war with Iran disrupted crude flows, have contributed to tight global diesel markets. China's planning commission and commerce ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Analysts expect only modest relief. "It will be limited as markets remain tight overall and Middle Eastern supplies are still disrupted," said Stuti Jhunjhunwala of Energy Aspects. June Goh of Sparta Commodities said the volumes were "lower than anticipated."
The storm
Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a major hurricane on Friday morning, with sustained winds of 120 mph, and was classified as a Category 3 storm. The National Hurricane Center said its center was expected to reach the western Florida Panhandle coast Friday evening, with "life-threatening storm surge and devastating winds" likely along the Panhandle and Alabama coasts. As of Thursday, about 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil production had been shut in. Refineries along the Gulf Coast sit in the broader path of the storm.
Who pays for diesel
The cost of distillate fuel is showing up in corporate results. Delta Air Lines said Friday that its third-quarter fuel bill was $4.14 billion, up 62% from a year earlier, at an average of $3.61 a gallon, and that it now assumes about $4.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter. The U.S. Global Jets ETF fell about 0.8%.
Two views
On one view, product markets are finally getting relief. Chinese exports are resuming, energy agencies are prioritizing diesel in stock releases, and Friday's drop in heating oil against firm crude is the first sign of it.
On another, the relief is marginal. China is shipping less than in September, the Gulf Coast refining system faces a major hurricane, Delta just guided to higher fuel costs, and diesel remains near its highest levels of the year.
What to watch
Isaias' landfall and damage reports over the weekend, the restart pace of Gulf platforms and refineries, and the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory data on Oct. 15 will show whether diesel's slide on Friday was the start of a trend or a pause.