Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, above the 0.2% economists expected. ASML said its planned supply won't fully meet demand in 2027 and 2028. The IEA said diesel stays tight well into next year.
A hot inflation print met a chip-tool maker that says it can't keep up.
S&P 500 futures turned lower after the 8:30 a.m. inflation report. Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.7%.
ASML says it cannot build enough machines for 2027 and 2028. ASML (ASML) posted record third-quarter sales of €11.66 billion, slightly below forecasts.
Profit beat estimates. It included a roughly €500 million gain on its Mistral AI stake, the company said.
Some customers are interested in ordering for "2029 and even 2030," it added.
Its U.S.-listed shares fell 1.9% Tuesday, when Applied Materials lost 6.7%.
SentinelOne borrowed $1.25 billion at zero interest. SentinelOne (S) priced the convertible notes, due 2031, overnight.
They convert at about $31.21 a share, 30% above Tuesday's close. The stock fell 6.4% Tuesday after the deal was proposed, while cybersecurity peers barely moved.
Orders Ahead, Money Now
Some ASML customers are asking about 2030, a day after chip-equipment stocks sold off. SentinelOne got money at no interest, and its shares fell 6.4% the day it proposed the deal. Both now trade against a hot inflation print.
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The IEA said the diesel squeeze will outlast winter. Two Iranian officials said Tehran aims to keep oil expensive.
The IEA says the diesel shortage will run into 2027. Global diesel exports fell 700,000 barrels a day from a year earlier in September, it said.
"The gasoil market balance will remain tight well into 2027," the report said. Eased curbs on Russian diesel won't change much, it added, since Russia lacks working refinery capacity.
U.S. diesel futures settled Tuesday up 4.5%, then slipped about 1% on Wednesday.
Saudi Arabia says it pumped 2 million more barrels a day in September, in its submission to OPEC.
Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran has new tactics against ships. The aim is to keep prices high before the U.S. midterms, they said.
Saudi Arabia said an Aramco office building in Dhahran was targeted, causing a "limited fire" and no injuries. It did not name an attacker; the Houthis had threatened the site.
Brent traded near $105.50 Wednesday morning, slightly below Tuesday's $105.69 settlement.
More Crude Isn't More Diesel
Saudi crude output jumped, yet the IEA says diesel stays short. Two Iranian officials say Tehran wants prices high through the midterms. Neither more crude nor eased Russian curbs fixes a refining gap.
Core prices ran hotter than forecast, a day after a Fed leader sketched an end to hikes.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said. Economists had expected 3.6%.
Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. Gasoline jumped 9.1% and drove over half the monthly gain.
It is the last consumer-price report before the Fed meets Oct. 27-28. Treasury yields rose after the release.
New York Fed President John Williams told Bloomberg he still sees room for one more hike. He has no reason at this time to expect increases in 2027, he said.
"I still believe that energy prices will not be adding to inflation next year or after that," he said. The two-year yield closed Tuesday at 4.79%.
President Trump posted that he'll "be there after the Elections." Polymarket's contract on no U.S. strike on Yemen through Oct. 31 rose 2 cents Tuesday evening. It traded near 88 cents.
The Fed's Beige Book is due at 2 p.m.
Energy Out, Prices Still Up
Williams expects energy to stop adding to inflation next year. September's core reading, which leaves energy out, still beat forecasts. The Yemen contract priced U.S. restraint through October. Rate traders get the Fed's answer Oct. 28.
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A bank paid for its lapses, and private credit funds kept rationing exits.
Bank of America admitted it willfully broke money-laundering rules, hours before reporting earnings. Penalties total $1.21 billion, including a record $750 million from the OCC.
FinCEN's order also requires a third-party review of past transactions.
Bank of America (BAC) earned 91 cents a share, or $1.08 excluding the penalty. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $1.10.
Revenue of $30.12 billion missed the $30.69 billion forecast. The shares traded nearly 8% lower before the open.
Morgan Stanley (MS) beat forecasts at $3.03 a share, as equity trading revenue rose about 41%. Its shares still traded almost 3% lower.
Redemption requests at non-traded private credit funds fell at 13 of 15, Fitch Ratings said Tuesday.
Requests still averaged 9.8% of shares, and requests at nine funds still exceed the 5% quarterly cap. Much of the queue is investors paid only in part earlier this year.
New money is shrinking too. Fitch said September inflows fell below May's low.
The Exit Line Moves Slowly
Bank of America's fine is settled, but the review is not. Morgan Stanley beat forecasts and still traded lower. Private credit investors are being paid back in pieces as fewer new dollars arrive.
Bitcoin slipped after the inflation report, a day after fund buyers came back.
Bitcoin fell to near $82,700 after the report, from about $83,800 just before it. It was near $82,400 by 9:20 a.m., and ether near $2,460.
Ether funds ended a 10-day exodus on Tuesday, taking in $24.8 million, Farside data show. BlackRock's ether fund recorded no flow.
Bitcoin funds took in $175.7 million, led by $103.1 million at Fidelity's fund.
Strive seeks $500 million with a 15% preferred. Strive (ASST) proposed selling a new perpetual preferred stock with a fixed 15% dividend.
Its existing preferred, which ranks ahead of the new one, pays about 13%. Proceeds could go to bitcoin, buybacks or other uses.
In Tokyo, Metaplanet bought back about 76% of the shares it offered to take in a block trade.
Buyers Back, Money Dearer
Fund buyers returned Tuesday, though BlackRock's ether fund sat out. The hot print then pulled bitcoin lower. Strive is offering more for new, junior-ranking money than its existing preferred pays.
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Wednesday morning put a price on waiting.
Some ASML customers are asking about 2030. The IEA sees diesel tight into 2027. Core prices ran faster than forecast, and Strive is offering 15% to raise money.
The Beige Book this afternoon gives the Fed's own read on prices.
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The headline is usually the last place the story shows up.
By the time everyone is talking about a stock… the signals underneath it may have been changing for weeks.
• Institutional money moves.
• Options activity changes.
• Management confidence shifts.
• Fundamentals improve, or quietly begin telling a different story.
That’s exactly what our analysts found in three stocks where the evidence stopped agreeing with itself.
And in all three cases, the story is still developing.