Chip stocks fell 3.4% after a report on OpenAI's revenue. Oil held much of its jump after a no-strike pledge. Bitcoin fell below $81,000 for the first time since Sept. 21.
Thursday's selling went deep in one corner and barely touched the rest.
The S&P 500 fell about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq lost more than 1.2%. The Dow edged up. An equal-weight S&P 500 fund rose about 0.6%.
Chip stocks fell more than 3% on a day the equal-weighted S&P 500 edged higher. The PHLX semiconductor index lost about 3.4%.
Chips were already lower when the Financial Times reported on OpenAI. The company put its annualized revenue near $50 billion in late September. Earlier figures shared with investors pointed to roughly $70 billion. The FT tied the gap to a recalculation built for comparison with Anthropic. OpenAI declined to comment.
OpenAI anchors several of the sector's biggest orders, and its suppliers took the hit. Oracle (ORCL), which sells it cloud capacity, fell 5.6%. Broadcom (AVGO), which is building a custom chip with it, lost 4.3%.
Record results did not protect the makers. Samsung and TSMC shares fell despite record chip results. Samsung estimated third-quarter operating profit at 107.4 trillion won. The surge reflects AI memory demand. Its shares slid 2.4% in Seoul. Taiwan Semiconductor's U.S. shares (TSM) lost about 3%.
One Customer Under the Order Book
Much of the chip trade leans on a few anchor customers. One revised figure from OpenAI moved the whole group while the average stock rose. Samsung's record shows the orders are arriving. The open question is the revenue behind them. The anchor customer's figure came in about $20 billion lighter.
People paid $8,000… yours for FREE
Some people have paid $8,000 to be in the room with Luke Lango in Las Vegas. But he believes the new Elon venture he's uncovered (not space or AI) is so big that EVERYONE needs to know about it. See how to get in while we're still early here.
This ad is sent on behalf of InvestorPlace Media at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, pleaseclick here.
Oil got a pledge from the White House and gave back only part of its rally.
Brent touched $105.91 Thursday morning. Overnight had brought reports of strike planning against Iran, a tanker attack near Qatar and Hurricane Isaias.
At 12:17 p.m., Trump ruled out a strike before November. He posted that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran" before the Nov. 3 midterms. The blockade, he wrote, "will remain in full force and effect."
By late afternoon, Brent was still up more than 3%, over half its peak gain. In late July, a pause in strikes knocked Brent down 6.7% in one session.
Isaias now carries 85 mph winds and is forecast to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Producers had shut about 25% of Gulf oil output as of Wednesday. Heating oil, the diesel benchmark, rose nearly 5%.
A Pledge With an Expiry Date
In July, a calmer headline knocked Brent down hard in a single session. Thursday's pledge covered one scenario through Nov. 3. It left the blockade, the tanker attacks and the storm in place. The premium now rests on physical threats that a post about timing does not reach.
The 30-year sold at its highest yield since 2000. Buyers still showed up.
The 30-year yield touched 5.732% in the morning, its highest since June 2002. At 1 p.m., the Treasury sold $22 billion of them at 5.618%. No 30-year sale had cleared that high since August 2000.
The yield was 31 basis points above September's sale. Bids covered the offer 2.54 times, down from 2.61. Dealers were left with 6.8%. Long yields then ended about 5 basis points lower.
Waller signaled more Fed hikes but left the timing open. The governor said hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings." He cited market odds near 85% for a hike by December.
Paid More to Stay
The long bond found its buyers, at a price that keeps rising. This sale needed a yield well above September's, and the bid-to-cover slipped. Dealers still took little. Waller kept more hikes in view with no fixed date. Buyers are still there, and this month they asked for more to stay.
7 AI Stocks to Lead the Next Decade
AI is fueling the Fourth Industrial Revolution – and these 7 stocks are front and center.
One of them makes $40K accelerator chips with a full-stack platform that all but guarantees wide adoption.
Another leads warehouse automation, with a $23B backlog – including all 47 distribution centers of a top U.S. retailer – plus a JV to lease robots to mid-market operators.
From core infrastructure to automation leaders, these companies and other leaders are all in 7 AI Stocks to Invest in Today.
Free today, grab it before the paywall locks.
Most state governments now stand on one side of the fight over sports contracts.
Thirty-nine states and the NFL want the Supreme Court to take Kalshi's case. The states, led by Ohio, filed Wednesday in support of New Jersey's petition.
Appeals courts have split. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, and the Ninth and Sixth sided with the states. Kalshi's reply is due Nov. 9. Coinbase is closing its Michigan sports contracts by Saturday under a state deal.
Separately, a Canadian family is buying Boots from Sycamore for $8.9 billion. The Weston family's Wittington Investments signed Wednesday, with Fairfax Financial co-investing.
The price includes assumed debt. CIBC and Morgan Stanley are supplying the acquisition loans. Sycamore and the Pessinas keep the Mexican and German businesses.
A License With Borders
Kalshi's sports business has no single answer on where it may operate. Three appeals courts disagree, and 39 states back New Jersey. Coinbase is already closing its Michigan contracts. Until the justices decide whether to hear the case, the map is drawn state by state.
Oil and yields eased in the afternoon. Bitcoin did not.
Bitcoin dropped below $81,000 for the first time since Sept. 21. It kept sliding after Trump's 12:17 p.m. post. Late in the day it traded near $81,700, down about 2%. Ether lost about 4% to near $2,470.
Miners fell much further than the coin. Hut 8 (HUT) dropped 10.9%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) lost 9.2%. Both have been building data centers for AI customers. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed about $485 million on Wednesday, the most since June, Farside data showed.
A U.S. government wallet moved about $1 billion of Bitfinex bitcoin. Arkham data showed about 12,267 coins tied to the 2016 hack leaving it. They went to new, unlabeled addresses, with no exchange deposit recorded. A court has ordered the hacked coins returned to Bitfinex.
The Seller Without a Name
Thursday removed the easy explanation. Oil and yields eased after midday, and bitcoin kept falling. Miners fell further still, and U.S. funds had already pulled money the day before. The government's coins now sit somewhere they could be sold, though nothing on-chain shows a sale.
Landmark Executive Order 14241 Unleashes
TRUMP’S NEW DOLLAR
Republican or Democrat – whether you support or oppose Trump’s New Dollar – every American could soon be forced to use it
Discover three critical moves to help you prepare, before it’s too late
Thursday's relief came from bonds and diplomacy. AI-linked stocks and bitcoin did not share it.
Isaias reaches the coast late Friday or early Saturday. Kalshi answers the Supreme Court petition by Nov. 9.
The chip trade now carries a smaller number for its anchor customer. Bitcoin has broken a floor that held since Sept. 21.
3 Market Signals Most Investors Aren't Watching
The headline is usually the last place the story shows up.
By the time everyone is talking about a stock… the signals underneath it may have been changing for weeks.
• Institutional money moves.
• Options activity changes.
• Management confidence shifts.
• Fundamentals improve, or quietly begin telling a different story.
That’s exactly what our analysts found in three stocks where the evidence stopped agreeing with itself.
And in all three cases, the story is still developing.