Macro

Canada's Retail Sales Rose 1.2% in August, With Every Subsector Higher

Sales volumes rose by the same amount, so the gain was not a price effect. An early estimate points to another increase in September, days before the Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 decision. Canadian consumers spent more in August, and they bough…

Canada's Retail Sales Rose 1.2% in August, With Every Subsector Higher
Canada's Retail Sales Rose 1.2% in August, With Every Subsector Higher

Sales volumes rose by the same amount, so the gain was not a price effect. An early estimate points to another increase in September, days before the Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 decision.

Canadian consumers spent more in August, and they bought more goods, not just pricier ones.

Retail sales rose 1.2% from July to C$74.57 billion, Statistics Canada said on Friday, slightly below the 1.3% the agency had flagged in its early estimate. Sales rose in all nine subsectors. Sales in volume terms also increased 1.2%, and core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.1%.

The August gain followed a decline in July. The agency's advance estimate for September points to a further 0.7% increase.

Why the volume number matters

When sales and volumes rise by the same amount, the increase reflects people buying more, not higher prices inflating the totals. That distinction matters at a time when energy costs are pushing up prices in many economies. It suggests Canadian household demand was holding up through late summer.

The Bank of Canada's read

The data arrive a few days before the Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 rate decision, which falls on the same day as the Federal Reserve's. Solid spending adds to the case for a rate increase, which a majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect, though forecasters remain divided between a hike and a hold.

The Canadian dollar barely moved, with the U.S. dollar at about C$1.4012.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's decision and statement on Oct. 28, and September's final retail figures next month, which will confirm or revise the 0.7% early estimate.

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