China's factory prices rose 5% in a year. A New York City pension chief says fund costs are creeping up. BlackRock filed for a bitcoin fund with a floor.
$111.
That is about where Brent traded early Tuesday, near a five-month high. It was up more than 1.5% from Monday's settlement. Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites, including an Aramco site at Yanbu. Saudi officials have not confirmed any damage. Washington eased Russia sanctions four days ago. Brent is higher now than it was then.
- Nasdaq 100 futures were lower after Monday's tech rebound. At about 7:10 a.m., they were down about 0.6%. CoreWeave (CRWV) was down more than 4% before the bell.
- Data out last week showed China's factory prices rose 5% from a year earlier in September. Its consumer prices rose 0.9%.
- At 8:30 a.m., September housing starts are due.
- GE, GM, RTX and Northrop reported before the open. Zions' earnings per share rose 20% from a year earlier, mostly on better credit, its CEO said.
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Brent Rose Back Above $111 After Claimed Attacks on Saudi Oil Sites.
The Only New Supply Washington Has Named Is Diesel.
At about 6:20 a.m., Brent was near $111.30. On Monday, it had dipped to about $106.80 in Asian trading as traders weighed the Russia waiver.
Since then, the news has come from the Gulf. The Houthis said they struck Saudi targets six times in 48 hours, naming Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield. Yanbu is how Saudi Arabia ships crude west without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia also put off a major investment conference until 2027.
Washington's relief is broad on paper. The order waives tariffs aimed at the biggest buyers of Russian crude. Older Russia sanctions stay in place. The one new supply Washington has named is diesel. Russia would first send more than 300,000 metric tons, Trump has said.
Gulf flow estimates split. Energy Secretary Chris Wright puts them near 80% of normal, a figure his agency has not published. Kpler's ship data showed Gulf crude flows falling by more than half last week. Traders are not betting on a quick Iran deal either. Early Tuesday, a Polymarket bet tied to Oct. 31 was under 10 cents. It pays only if the U.S. announces an end to its Iran blockade by then.
A Premium for Crude That May Not Arrive
More diesel would ease a fuel shortage. It would not replace crude that must sail past threats. So traders may keep paying up for crude even as diesel comes in. Confirmed damage at a Saudi export site would back that reading. A week of normal Red Sea loadings would weaken it.
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SIGNAL 1: Trumid's Backers Are Set for a Mostly Cash Exit. A Seoul Listing Priced at the Top of Its Range Fell as Much as 32%.
On Monday, PMD said a private price waits for a sale or a listing. Overnight, one private firm agreed to a sale and another listed. Tradeweb (TW)agreed to buy Trumid, a venture-backed bond-trading platform, for about $1.97 billion. About $1.89 billion is cash, mostly from cash on hand. Neither side gave Trumid's last private value.
Elice, a Korean data-center firm, sold shares at the top of its range. On its first day, it fell as much as 32%. Seoul's main index fell 3.7%, led by chipmakers, a day after the Nasdaq rose 1.1%.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Tradeweb's call this morning may say when it expects $60 million of cost savings. Its price multiple leans on them. Elice's second session may show if day one was a one-off.
SIGNAL 2: Blackstone's Power Fund Closed About 55% Larger, at Its Cap. New York City's Pension Chief Says Fund Costs Are Creeping Up.
Blackstone (BX)closed its fifth energy transition fund at $8.7 billion, its hard cap. The last one closed at $5.6 billion. The $8.7 billion is pledged money, drawn as deals are made. Three firms it has funded build power plants and power lines, as data centers help lift demand.
At least one large backer is pushing back on terms. New York City's pension chief, Monte Tarbox, told a conference that fund expenses are creeping up, a report said. He said a firm he did not name asked the pension to pay for its staff's private jet travel. He tied it to the push for retail money. He announced no change to the pension's holdings.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Blackstone reports Thursday, Apollo Nov. 3 and KKR Nov. 9. What they say on fund costs and retail money may show if the pushback is landing.
SIGNAL 3: One BlackRock Fund Took In $665 Million on Monday. BlackRock Also Filed for a Bitcoin Fund With a Floor.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust took in $665.2 million on Monday, Farside data show. It was the only U.S. spot bitcoin fund with net inflows. Overnight, bitcoin drifted lower. At about 7:20 a.m., it was near $81,400.
BlackRock also filed for a fund that would cap both losses and gains. It would buy options on its own bitcoin fund. Each layer would typically limit losses to about 10%, before fees. The fee and the cap on gains are blank. Investors could still lose some or all of their money, the filing says.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Tuesday's fund flows come after the close. Inflows across several funds would point to a trend, not one trade. An amended filing would show how much upside the floor costs.
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Pull up Tesla's most recent SEC filing. Page 5.
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- SpaceX (SPCX)spent $18.4 billion on capital projects in its second quarter. That is about 1.4 times the third-quarter sales analysts expect. It reports after the close, on two business days' notice.
- ABB booked a record $12.1 billion of orders, and data-center orders more than doubled. Earnings per share came in about 18% below ABB's compiled consensus. ABB tied its flat profit mainly to a currency hedge. By about 6 a.m., its shares were down nearly 6% in Zurich.
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
Certainty carries a price: a barrel that arrives, a cash exit, a floor.
Oil traders may be paying up for crude they fear will not arrive, though no damage is confirmed. Trumid's backers agreed to a set price, mostly cash. Elice's buyers paid the top of the range and had no floor. BlackRock wants to sell bitcoin with one, in return for capped gains. New York City's pension chief warns that retail funds promise exits their assets cannot quickly give. If prices keep swinging, a fixed price may be worth more to sellers than a shot at a higher one.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Tue., Oct. 20
Housing starts, 8:30 a.m.; Tradeweb call, 8:30 a.m.; Netflix, SpaceX and United report after the close
Wed., Oct. 21
Energy Department oil report, 10:30 a.m.; Meta and Tesla report
Thu., Oct. 22
Blackstone reports
Oct. 27-28
Fed meeting
Thu., Oct. 29
Tradeweb and Blue Owl report
Sun., Nov. 1
OPEC+ meets
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.19%. By September 30, it was 5.29%. Most of that move landed in a single quarter.
The bond market repriced and companies are starting to report it.
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Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
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