Brent Nears $100 | Houthis Hit Saudi Energy Sites | Chips Defy the Selloff | Bitcoin Tests $78K

Oil took control of Tuesday’s tape.

The Dow fell 622 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 lost 0.5%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% as markets reopened after Labor Day.

Brent closed at $97.92 after touching $99.46. WTI settled at $93.03, up 1.7%. Oil is now up more than 8% in September, putting inflation back at the center of the rate debate.

Semiconductors resisted the move. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gained 1.5%, Intel (INTC) jumped more than 9%, AMD rose over 6%, and Broadcom (AVGO) gained 3%.

September hike odds remain near 60%. PPI arrives Thursday and CPI Friday, ahead of the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting.

The Signal

Stocks did not fall because growth disappeared. They fell because oil made the cost of growth harder to ignore.

The war is spreading beyond Hormuz.

Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy sites in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran with drones and missiles. More than 70 civilians were injured, and fires forced temporary shutdowns at several energy facilities.

Then another Iran story hit after the close.

Reports said Tehran tried to attack U.S. Navy ships Monday, days after targeting an aircraft carrier with ballistic missiles. Brent moved to about $99.05 in extended trading, while WTI climbed to $94.04.

Washington is widening its response. The Treasury sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines as part of its effort to isolate Tehran from global finance. U.S. forces have also struck three Iranian tankers following attacks on American warships.

Goldman Sachs now says Brent could exceed $120 in 2027 if Gulf output remains 4 million barrels per day below prewar levels.

Even the capture of a U.S. underwater drone adds to the picture. Washington says the $2.5 million autonomous vehicle was defective and held no sensitive data, but the incident shows how unmanned systems are becoming part of the Hormuz fight.

Energy Signal

This is no longer only a Strait disruption. Saudi energy sites, Iranian tankers and U.S. warships are now part of the same risk.

Oil is making Friday’s CPI harder to ignore.

September hike odds sit near 60% after August payrolls rose 162,000, far above expectations. The labor market gave the Fed room to focus on inflation.

Now energy is adding pressure.

Brent is near $100, WTI is above $93, and the Gulf conflict is reaching Saudi infrastructure. That raises the risk that higher energy costs spread into transport and goods prices.

Trade adds another pressure point. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect Tuesday.

PPI comes Thursday. CPI follows Friday.

Macro Signal

Payrolls removed weak labor as the reason to hold. Oil is now raising the bar for inflation to give the Fed one.

Tuesday’s chip rally showed where investors still see durable demand.

SMH gained 1.5% even as the broader market fell. Intel rose more than 9%, AMD gained over 6%, and Broadcom added 3%.

The supply chain is preparing for more.

TSMC (TSM) and Samsung committed to ASML’s newest High NA EUV machines, which cost roughly $400 million each. Samsung plans to use the systems for DRAM production from 2028, while TSMC expects them to support more advanced AI chips.

Intel is already using the technology.

That links Tuesday’s chip strength to a larger capital cycle. AI demand is forcing chipmakers to spend more not only on processors, but on the machines needed to make the next generation.

Capital Signal

Oil is raising the economy’s input costs while AI raises the chip industry’s capital needs. Investors are still willing to fund the second one.

Bitcoin is testing whether institutional demand can outrun weak plumbing.

BTC fell near $78,450 after failing again above $80,000. The $78,000 to $78,200 range is now the key support zone. A break could expose $77,000 and then $76,000.

The bigger issue remains Liquid Network.

About $320 million was withdrawn from the Bitcoin-linked sidechain. Reports now say most of the funds were returned, with roughly $47 million retained. Bitcoin’s base blockchain was not breached. The failure hit the settlement infrastructure around it.

That distinction matters because the problem is broader than Liquid.

Crypto platforms lost more than $3.63 billion to hacks and stolen credentials between January 2025 and July 2026. About 88% of stolen funds came from projects that had completed security audits.

At the same time, mainstream adoption keeps expanding.

Visa (V) now supports more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs, nearly 200% more than a year ago. Onchain lending has processed almost $700 billion in stablecoin loans over six years.

The Verdict

Bitcoin itself keeps working. The systems around it remain the weak point. Visa’s growth shows why fixing that gap matters as crypto moves deeper into payments and credit.

Tuesday connected three markets through one problem.

Oil moved toward $100 because the Gulf conflict widened from Hormuz into Saudi energy infrastructure and another reported attack on U.S. warships. Stocks fell because that makes inflation harder to dismiss.

Chips resisted because AI demand is forcing another investment cycle, with TSMC and Samsung committing to $400 million ASML machines.

Crypto showed the same split. Bitcoin is testing $78,000 while Visa pushes stablecoins deeper into finance, even as a $320 million Liquid breach shows how fragile the rails can still be.

PPI and CPI now decide whether oil becomes more than a geopolitical shock.

The Fed already has strong jobs.

What it cannot afford is another inflation problem.