Tesla cut its spending plan by at least a fifth. France's 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002. A court order on Getty's case funding is due within days. Kalshi said it will lend against bitcoin for futures margin.
$20 billion.
Tesla (TSLA)cut its spending plan for this year to about that, from more than $25 billion. Its finance chief said cash from the business would fund most of it. Free cash flow was about $1.5 billion, but operating profit fell 56%. Wednesday's PMD said Musk could be asked about a merger on the call. Tesla would not take those questions. By about 7:15 a.m., its shares were down about 3.5% before the bell.
A smaller budget did not lift the stock.
- By about 7:15 a.m., Brent was near $112, up about 2.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.7%.
- France's 10-year yield hit 5.06%, its highest since 2002, while German and U.S. bonds gained. Moody's reviews France on Friday.
- At 8:30 a.m., the government reports weekly jobless claims. At 1 p.m., the U.S. sells $26 billion of five-year Treasury notes that adjust for inflation.
- Blackstone (BX) and American Airlines (AAL) report before the open.
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Brent Held Above $110 After an Attack Reached a Saudi Oil Field. Treasuries Rallied Anyway.
A drone aimed at Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oil field was intercepted on Wednesday. Falling debris killed two people, the Saudi energy ministry said. It said the field kept working. Hours later, the State Department ordered non-emergency U.S. government staff out of Saudi Arabia.
That matters because Saudi Arabia is the Gulf's cushion. Gulf oil exports ran above prewar levels in the week to Oct. 18, according to Kpler. Hormuz traffic has not recovered. Routes around it, many across Saudi land, made up the gap. By the ministry's account, supply is intact for now. The risk is that those routes become the target.
Brent held near $112 for hours, a day after a similar spike faded. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.09% in early trading in Europe. Gold fell about 1%, and the yen firmed. In this war, oil spikes have usually pushed yields up.
Polymarket has a bet that the U.S.-Iran truce holds through Oct. 24. It fell as much as 21.5 points on Wednesday afternoon. Its steepest drop came as Iranian media reported blasts near Hormuz. Their cause has not been confirmed. By 5:33 a.m., the bet had won back most of its loss. It pays out unless a U.S. air or missile strike hits Iran by then. The Saudi attack does not count.
Bonds Rallied as if Growth Were the Bigger Risk
Bonds rallied as Gulf attacks spread and tech sold off, and nothing yet shows which drove it. Falling gold fits a growth scare better than an inflation one. The 1 p.m. sale is the next read on how much inflation investors will price with Brent above $110.
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SIGNAL 1: IBM and Lam Beat. Chip and AI Stocks Fell Before the Bell.
IBM (IBM) beat on sales and raised its cash outlook. Its shares rose more than 7% after hours, then fell below their close during the call. Its chief said clients worry whether some AI spending is "out of control with no real return." By about 7:15 a.m., IBM was down about 5%.
Lam Research (LRCX)posted record sales, up 54%. At the low end of its forecast, sales would dip slightly from last quarter. By about 7:15 a.m., Lam was down about 7.5%. Meta's spending last quarter topped the cash its business made, and it raised the floor of its plan for the year.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
The first read is whether the drops hold after the 9:30 a.m. open. Then watch whether other tech firms reporting in the coming weeks hear the same worry from clients.
SIGNAL 2: Legora's Value Rose 57% in Six Months. Mutual Fund Firms Joined the Round.
Legora, a legal AI company, raised $550 million. After the round, it is valued at $8.8 billion, up from $5.6 billion six months ago. Atreides Management led. Capital Group, Fidelity and Baron, which run public mutual funds, are among the new backers.
Legora says its yearly recurring sales top $200 million. That puts the price at no more than about 44 times sales. It did not say how much of the round is new money or what terms the shares carry. The round came out Wednesday, hours before AI stocks fell in Asia.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Existing backers may carry the new value in their fourth-quarter marks. Sales figures or other signs of a listing would be the first outside check on that price.
SIGNAL 3: Bitcoin Funds Took In About $1.08 Billion in Three Days. Bitcoin Fell Back to Its 50-Day Average.
U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in about $1.08 billion in three days, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin peaked Wednesday afternoon, then fell. By about 7:15 a.m., it was near $82,000, as tech stocks slid in Asia and in futures.
Kalshi said clients of Kalshi Prime, its futures broker, will be able to borrow against crypto held at BitGo. They can post the cash as margin for perpetual futures, which never expire. A trader who keeps the coin and bets it will rise can lose twice on one drop. Kalshi plans to offer its perpetuals to Webull clients in November.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Thursday's fund flows are the first to reflect the drop. A court ruling on CME's challenge to Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual is pending.
Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb
America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline.
As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities.
If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains.
Click here to see the 10 popular stocks to dump immediately
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- Getty Images entered Chapter 11 in Delaware on Wednesday. Holders of 16.5% of its unsecured notes have not signed on. Holdout creditors and shareholders set to get nothing are where an objection would start. The first court order on case funding, which Wednesday's PMD flagged, is due near Oct. 26.
- Meta says its new non-voting stock will let it seek money from sovereign investors, given U.S. rules on foreign stakes. It "expects to conduct offerings of Class C common stock from time to time."
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
The beats were behind them. The prices looked ahead.
Brent kept this spike as attacks reached Saudi Arabia, whose routes carry what Hormuz cannot. That is a risk to barrels not yet lost. Chip and AI stocks fell after beats, and one reading is doubt that big customers will earn back their AI spending. Legora's backers paid for growth still to come. Fund firms such as Fidelity may now own AI bets on both sides. In public, the price moves by the minute. In private, it moves by the quarter.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Thu., Oct. 22
Jobless claims, 8:30 a.m.; 5-year inflation-linked note sale, 1 p.m.; Blackstone and American Airlines report; Datafolha poll in Brazil
Fri., Oct. 23
Moody's reviews France; Polymarket's Hormuz deal contract closes
Oct. 27-28
Fed meeting
Thu., Oct. 29
ECB decision; Blue Owl and Strategy report
Tue., Nov. 3
U.S. midterm elections
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.19%. By September 30, it was 5.29%. Most of that move landed in a single quarter.
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