Blackstone’s credit fund paid about half of withdrawal requests, yet its shares rose about 8%. Meta’s default swaps hit a record. Traders halved October Fed hike odds.
$63.3 billion.
That is how much new money Blackstone (BX)took in last quarter, well above the $44.9 billion analysts expected. Getting money back out was harder. Realized performance revenue, the share of gains Blackstone collects when its funds sell, fell 38%.
Raising money was the easy part this quarter.
- The AI selloff hit chip stocks, and power and turbine stocks fell harder. The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq about 2.6%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5%. It closed at about 4.96%, its first close below 5% since Sept. 22. Brent rose to its highest since May and was near $113 late Thursday.
- Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000, below forecasts.
- Moody's reviews France on Friday. Blue Owl (OWL), Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) report next Thursday.
Private Credit Raised the Most in Five Years in the First Half. Blackstone's Credit Fund for Individuals Paid About Half of Its Exit Requests.
BCRED is Blackstone's private credit fund for individuals. Last quarter, its investors asked to withdraw 10% of its net asset value. That is twice the fund's 5% limit. Blackstone paid about half. Net outflows were $1.4 billion. Blackstone first disclosed the level of requests in early September.
The same day, the industry's main trade group said private credit fundraising in the first half was the highest in five years. Global private credit assets reached $4.1 trillion at the end of 2025, up 17%, it said. Most of the growth is in funds that do not let investors withdraw. The group is an advocacy body. One data firm said default risk on loans in business development companies rose 10% in two years.
Blackstone's other funds for individuals did better. BXPE, its private equity fund, had record sales of $2.9 billion. BREIT, its real estate fund, had its best regular-way net flows in four years.
Blackstone said carried interest from sales already signed this quarter will top its third-quarter net realizations. Its shares fell before the open, then ended up about 8%. No single item explains the turn.
The Next Queue Is the Test
One reading is that exits are about to pick up and BCRED's queue is one product cooling. Another is that the firm's main growth channel now has a visible limit on cash going out. Fourth-quarter exits and BCRED's next requests would show which reading holds.
Man Who Tabbed AMD at $2 a Share Just Made His Biggest Call Yet
On March 6, 2009, Matt McCall went on FOX Business and gave away nine stocks. One was AMD, trading around two dollars. It has since soared as much as 25,000%.
Now he's giving away the name and ticker behind his next big call.
For the time being, you can watch him lay it all out, free, right here.
Wall Street veteran goes ALL in on Bank of Elon
A 20-year Wall Street veteran – who worked at a $10 billion hedge fund – is putting ALL his money in Elon Musk's new bank. He says he can see the writing on the wall for traditional banks. And he's not the only one. See if you should join him here (not just for the 6% yield).
This ad is sent on behalf of InvestorPlace Media at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, pleaseclick here.
SIGNAL 1: The AI Selloff Deepened After the Open, and Power Stocks Fell Hardest. The Cost of Insuring Meta's Debt Hit a Record.
This morning, PMD said the first read was whether the premarket drops would hold after the open. They deepened. Lam Research (LRCX) ended down about 12%. Power and turbine stocks, already 3% to 5% lower before the open, fell further. GE Vernova (GEV) fell about 11%, Vistra (VST) about 10% and Bloom Energy (BE) about 9%.
Meta Platforms (META) fell about 7%. The price of five-year default swaps on its debt hit a record, and its bonds fell. Credit investors focused on how much Meta may borrow to fund its AI build-out. A swap price is the cost of protection, not a forecast of default.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Meta's first sale of new bonds or of its new non-voting stock would show what its funding now costs. Results from other large AI spenders in the coming weeks will show whether the selling spreads further.
SIGNAL 2: The 10-Year Fell Below 5% as Brent Hit Its Highest Since May. Traders Halved the Odds of an October Hike.
Treasuries rallied through the U.S. session, and the 10-year yield fell about 17 basis points on the day. The two-year yield, the one most tied to Fed policy, fell about 16. Jobless claims came in below forecasts, which would usually push yields up. Yields fell anyway. Nothing yet shows whether the tech selloff, the Gulf attacks or something else drove the bond buying.
On Kalshi, a contract that pays if the Fed raises rates by a quarter point next week fell to 6 cents from 12. A Polymarket contract that pays if the Fed holds rose to 93.5 cents. No single event lines up with the move.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Sales of two-, five- and seven-year notes fall on either side of the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting. They will show whether buyers want Treasuries below 5% while oil stays high.
SIGNAL 3: A Report Priced Fireblocks 69% Below Its Last Valuation. Bitcoin Sat Near ETF Buyers' Average Cost.
Visa (V) is in late-stage talks to buy Fireblocks for about $2.5 billion, Axios reported, citing multiple sources. Fireblocks, a crypto custody firm, raised money at an $8 billion value in 2022. A sale at $2.5 billion would be about 69% below that mark. Fireblocks called the report "not true at present time." Visa declined to comment.
Bitcoin was near $81,300 late Thursday, close to the estimated average cost of U.S. spot bitcoin fund holders, about $81,500. Crypto stocks fell harder than the coin after the open. Coinbase fell about 4.5% and Strategy about 5%.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Fund flow data for Thursday will show whether bitcoin fund buyers hold near their cost. A statement from Visa or Fireblocks would confirm or end the reported talks.
FREE Gold Ticker to Buy ASAP: (NYSE:___)
Jim Rickards – the world’s #1 gold expert – has just revealed one of his favorite gold plays… 100% FREE
As Jim sees it, we’re witnessing the biggest gold boom of the last 100 years – and those who keep their money on the sidelines are missing their chance at a fortune thanks to gold’s epic run.
But smart investors who get in now, could make 10X their money in the coming months.
- A HarbourVest fund that trades in London will offer to buy back up to $400 million of its shares. The price is 90% of its asset value. On Oct. 20, the shares closed near 71% of it. The vote is Nov. 16.
- Octus managers, including its founder, are selling alongside Permira in LSEG's $3.54 billion deal. LSEG is paying with debt, at up to about 12 times Octus's expected sales this year.
- DeepSeek is raising about $15 billion, Bloomberg and Reuters reported, with CATL and Tencent among its biggest backers. No value has been disclosed.
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
A private value is tested when someone wants cash.
Private funds carry values their managers set until someone sells. Thursday brought three such checks. One was a withdrawal queue, which tests how much cash a fund can hand back at its own value. The other two put a price below a private mark. One was a buyback at 90% of asset value. The other was a reported sale far below a past valuation. If public AI stocks keep falling, private AI rounds and exits would likely face the same test. More holders may also ask to leave funds that offer periodic withdrawals.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Fri., Oct. 23
Moody's reviews France; flash U.S. business activity data
Sat., Oct. 24
Polymarket's Oct. 24 Iran ceasefire contract ends
Oct. 27-28
Fed meeting; five-year note sale on Oct. 27
Thu., Oct. 29
ECB decision; seven-year note sale; Blue Owl, Coinbase and Strategy report
Tue., Nov. 3
U.S. midterm elections
Same Rate Move. Three Different Bills.
The 10-year went from 4.19% to 5.29% this year. Every company on your screen felt that. They don't feel it on the same schedule.
Some earn more when rates rise. Some pay more. The difference shows up in earnings, one report at a time.
We traced three of them: IBKR, WRB and FIS.
FREE Special Report: Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
Who earns it fast. Who earns it slowly. Who pays. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
We'll text the report straight to your phone.