Crypto is diverging from the equity tape on the same morning, after a week in which spot bitcoin funds bled and ethereum funds took money in.
Bitcoin rose about 1.14% to $77,653 in Monday trading, on a morning when Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.6% and semiconductor names fell across two continents.
That divergence is worth stating carefully. It is one morning, and the two asset classes have spent much of this year moving together on rate expectations. But it comes after a week in which the correlation already looked strained.
Bitcoin closed Sunday at approximately $76,838, down 0.56% on the session. Over the prior week it fell 3.10%, from $79,671 to $77,204. Ethereum went the other way over the same week, rising 2.39% from $2,456 to $2,515.
The fund flows split the same way
The exchange-traded product data lines up with the price action rather than against it. Spot bitcoin funds saw roughly $463 million in net weekly outflows, with ARKB, GBTC and IBIT leading the redemptions. Spot ethereum funds took in roughly $197 million over the same period, with BlackRock's ETHA cited as the driver.
Two products, same wrapper structure, same distribution, opposite flows. That is not a wholesale retreat from crypto exposure. It is a rotation inside it.
Crypto equities did not participate
The equity proxies had a harder week than the assets. Strategy fell 8.28%, Coinbase 5.08% and Circle 11.22% over the week ended . Miners went the other way, with Marathon up 5.92%, CleanSpark up 7.72% and Hut 8 up 5.40%.
The split between the treasury and exchange names on one side and the miners on the other suggests the market was pricing something specific to business models rather than to bitcoin's price, which was roughly flat to lower across the same stretch.
The Fed is the variable
What sits over all of it is Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, into which event-contract venues are pricing a 79% probability of a rate increase and futures markets have been pricing higher still. A hike is not the setup under which crypto has historically outperformed.
That makes Monday's divergence the interesting data point rather than the conclusion. Bitcoin is holding a bid on a risk-off equity morning, two days before a rate decision that should be a headwind. Whether that survives the decision itself is the question the rest of this week answers, and the ETF flow data is where the answer will show up first.