With one session left in September, the token near $84,000 has outpaced bonds, bank stocks and silver, even as yields at multi-decade highs raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing.
September has been hard on almost everything tied to interest rates. Bitcoin is one of the exceptions.
The largest cryptocurrency traded near $84,000 on Tuesday, up about 7% for the month. Over roughly the same stretch, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF lost 4.4% through Monday, counting interest, and the S&P 500's financial stocks fell 6.3%. The S&P 500 was down about 0.3% for the month. Silver dropped on Tuesday to its lowest price since early August.
That puts bitcoin about 11 percentage points ahead of long-dated Treasurys in a month when the 30-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2002.
Rates and the dollar
Rising yields work against bitcoin by construction, since it pays no interest and competes with bonds that now pay more than 5%. The dollar index also moved toward a three-month high near 101.6. Neither has reversed the month's gain so far.
The last week
The late-month tape is weaker. The iShares Bitcoin Trust, the biggest U.S. spot bitcoin fund, slipped about 0.2% on Tuesday and was set for a sixth losing session in a row. The fund has not had a longer slide since the seven sessions that ended Feb. 5.
Ether traded around $2,700, little changed, and the total crypto market was valued at about $2.96 trillion.
The calendar
A gain on Wednesday's close would also mark a rare seasonal run. Bitcoin rose 25% in August, and September has averaged a 2.2% loss, one of only two months with a negative average. A positive September after a positive August has not happened since 2013, and it would make three monthly gains in a row.
Two markers follow. The August personal consumption expenditures index, due Wednesday, will set the tone for October rate expectations and long yields. The bitcoin ETF's next session will show whether the six-day slide was late-month profit-taking or the start of a weaker quarter.