Thursday's outflow from U.S. spot bitcoin funds was the largest since June 25 and turned October's flows negative. Ether funds lost $111 million. After Thursday's drop, bitcoin held near $81,700 overnight, right on its 50-day average.
Investors pulled a net $635.6 million from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Thursday, according to Farside Investors data. A day earlier, the funds had taken in about $528 million, and Thursday's outflow was the largest since June 25, according to SoSoValue.
The reversal ended a three-day buying run of about $1.08 billion and pushed October's net flows to roughly minus $175 million. The week as a whole remains positive by about $443 million.
The selling was concentrated in the largest funds. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust lost $254.1 million, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund $217.5 million and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF $109.4 million. Grayscale's GBTC lost $29.5 million. U.S. spot ether ETFs had net outflows of $110.6 million, led by $75.5 million from BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust.
Down on the day, flat overnight
The flows and the price moved together on Thursday. Bitcoin fell about 3.2%, from about $84,025 at Wednesday's daily close to about $81,307 on Thursday, as the funds swung from buying to selling.
The calm came afterward. Bitcoin dipped to about $81,000 on Thursday evening, then recovered once Asian trading opened and has held between about $81,400 and $81,900 since. It traded at about $81,720 at 4:45 a.m. Eastern on Friday, essentially on its 50-day average and about 2.4% above the mid-October low. That overnight stability suggests the selling found buyers, though Friday's flows will show whether it has run its course.
Selling near breakeven
Bitcoin has traded near the roughly $81,500 that U.S. spot ETF holders are estimated to have paid on average, according to Glassnode, for about a week. Holders sold near that level on Oct. 16, bought about $1.08 billion near it from Monday to Wednesday, then sold again on Thursday. Whether they treat it as a place to exit at breakeven is still an open question.
Analysts at DWF Labs have found that ETF holders sold into seven of the past eight bitcoin selloffs since 2024, and that average flows turn negative after the price drops 7% from a 20-day high. Thursday's pattern fits that history, though it does not prove that cost-basis selling was the reason.
The other explanation is broader de-risking. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% on Thursday. Miners and Galaxy Digital fell two to three times as much as bitcoin itself: Galaxy closed down 9.7%, IREN 8.4%, Riot Platforms 8.1%, CleanSpark 6.9% and MARA 6.9%. Strategy, Robinhood and Coinbase fell less, between 4.5% and 5.2%. Galaxy and CleanSpark touched 52-week lows during the session.
Spot bitcoin ETFs now hold about $104.7 billion, roughly 6.4% of bitcoin's market value.
What to watch
Friday's flow data, which will show whether Thursday was a one-day event or the start of a run. The Fed's Oct. 27 to 28 meeting and quarterly results from Coinbase and Strategy on Oct. 29 are the next catalysts. A sustained move below the Oct. 15 low would put the cost-basis zone clearly behind the price.