U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in about $2.1 billion over three sessions before inflows nearly stopped on . Bitcoin has slipped back toward $83,500, and Kalshi traders put a one-in-three chance on a return above $87,500 this month.
For three sessions, buyers poured money into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. On the fourth, they nearly stopped.
The funds took in $433.0 million on , $999.0 million on and $714.7 million on . That is about $2.15 billion in three sessions, enough to erase a redemption wave earlier in the month, when the funds lost $450.4 million on and $295.9 million on .
Then the flow slowed sharply. On , net inflows were $32.4 million, about 3% of the single-day peak two sessions earlier.
Price action has cooled along with the buying. Bitcoin briefly traded above $87,000 earlier in the week, its highest since late January, before slipping back. It stood at about $83,506 on Coinbase early Thursday. Ether was near $2,665 and Solana near $114.
Prediction-market traders are not betting on a quick recovery. On Kalshi, a contract that pays out if bitcoin touches $87,500 before the end of September priced a 34% chance early Thursday. Contracts for $90,000 and $92,500 priced 15% and 8%.
Two forces sit on either side of the market. On one side, the inflow streak showed institutional demand returning after the mid-month selling. On the other, a broader rise in interest rates has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2004, and higher yields raise the return investors can earn without taking crypto risk.
Friday brings a third. About $16 billion of bitcoin options on Deribit expire in the quarterly settlement, and a settlement of that size can pull hedging activity into the days around it.
The next few sessions of ETF data should tip the balance one way. A return to inflows in the hundreds of millions after Friday's expiration would suggest the pause was about positioning around the settlement. Flows that stay near zero, or turn negative, would point to buyers stepping back as yields climb.