Bitcoin held near $81,200, close to the estimated average cost of U.S. spot ETF holders, while miners with AI-hosting businesses led a slide in crypto equities. Treasuries, not bitcoin, drew the day's safety bid.
Bitcoin did most of its falling overnight. Crypto stocks did theirs after the opening bell.
Bitcoin traded at about $81,172 at 1:51 p.m. Eastern, down about 3.4% since midnight UTC and 4.3% below Wednesday afternoon's high of $84,826. But it was only 0.7% lower than where it stood before dawn on Thursday. Through European trading and the U.S. premarket, it held between about $81,550 and $82,100, dipped to $80,819 around noon, and recovered to roughly $81,200.
Crypto equities, which could not trade overnight, caught up in a single session. By early afternoon, Galaxy Digital was down 9.3%, IREN 9.4%, Riot Platforms 9.1%, CleanSpark 8.4% and MARA 7.6%. Bitmine fell 7.5%. Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood each dropped about 6%. The iShares Bitcoin Trust, which tracks the coin's price, fell 4%.
Miners traded like AI stocks
The deepest losses came in miners that have pivoted part of their business toward hosting AI computing. IREN touched a 52-week low of $24.86. Those companies fell alongside the broader AI-infrastructure selloff, in which CoreWeave and other so-called neoclouds slid on concerns about AI-related debt. For these names, the AI trade appears to matter as much as the bitcoin price.
A cost-basis test
Bitcoin's level matters for a different reason. The average purchase price of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF holders is estimated at about $81,500, which puts Thursday's price roughly 0.4% below that mark. Bitcoin treasury companies are estimated to have an average cost of about $80,200 as of Oct. 19, about 1.2% below the current price. Their monthly buying has run below 10% of its peak since June.
Those are averages, not thresholds, but they mark the zone where the typical ETF and corporate buyer moves from a gain to a loss. That makes Thursday's fund flows, the first to reflect the drop, a direct read on whether those buyers hold.
Not a haven today
The day undercut the idea of bitcoin as a refuge. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 18 basis points to below 5%, a classic flight-to-safety move, and gold fell. Bitcoin traded with technology stocks instead, as the Nasdaq dropped about 2.4% and Brent crude rose above $112.
Bitcoin remained above its Oct. 15 low of $79,821 and just under its 50-day moving average of about $81,700.
What to watch
Thursday's ETF flow data, published after the close, will show whether inflows held at cost basis. Analysts at Bitfinex have framed $81,300 to $84,400 as the range into the Fed meeting, with a close below the bottom of it putting the Oct. 15 low back in view. Coinbase and Strategy report results on Oct. 29.