Through Oct. 23, bitcoin was down 7.3% for the year and gold 7.5%, the bottom two of 21 asset classes in one widely followed table. Since then bitcoin has slipped under $80,000, while gold has been roughly flat.
Two assets investors often buy as protection against war and inflation are losing money in a year that has delivered both.
Bitcoin fell 7.3% and gold 7.5% in 2026 through Oct. 23, making them the two worst performers among 21 major asset classes tracked by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning. Bilello said the two had never before both finished at the bottom of his table in any calendar year.
Since then, bitcoin has slipped further, to about $79,675 early on Tuesday, down about 8.9% from its year-end close of $87,498. Gold has been roughly flat: futures were at $4,007.50 an ounce, down 0.77% on the day and still roughly 7% to 8% below their year-end level.
The year they were supposed to win
The backdrop makes the result striking. Brent crude is above $115 a barrel as conflict in the Gulf disrupts shipping and threatens Saudi infrastructure. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, and futures markets expect a further increase by December. Those are the conditions in which investors typically turn to hard assets.
Instead, both have fallen. Spot gold closed below $4,000 on Friday, and bitcoin slipped back under $80,000 overnight.
The common thread may be rates. A Fed that is still raising them in a war year makes holding any asset without a yield more expensive, and that may matter more to both than the war itself.
A different view on bitcoin
Not everyone reads the slide as a breakdown. In a note first sent on Oct. 22 and published on Oct. 26, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research argued that bitcoin's bear market ended at its June low, pointing to five consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week average and slowing sales by long-term holders. Galaxy set a "tripwire" for that view: a weekly close below the 50-week average, then about $76,540, that is not regained within a month. Bitcoin is about 4% above that level. Galaxy holds bitcoin and is a participant in the market.
Fund flows were mixed. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $110 million on Monday, according to published fund-flow data, ending two days of outflows. All of it went into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. Spot ether ETFs lost about $89 million.
Two readings
One reading is that this is a rate-cycle effect, not a verdict on either asset. Both are reacting to higher yields, gold is coming off a large gain in 2025, and bitcoin is holding the $79,000 area that has supported it repeatedly in recent days.
The other is that the hedge case is failing its live test. A year with an energy shock and a war is the scenario both assets are supposed to protect against, and both are at the bottom of the table. If investors conclude that neither protects a portfolio when it matters, demand from allocators who bought them for that purpose could thin further.
What to watch
The Fed's decision and press conference on Wednesday, results from Coinbase and Strategy on Thursday, Friday's bitcoin and ether options expiry, Galaxy's 50-week-average tripwire, and whether spot gold holds $4,000.