Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1.7% after Meta, Tesla and IBM reported. Brent climbed near $112, and Treasuries rallied anyway. Bitcoin slipped back near $82,000 after three days of fund inflows.
Big Tech's evening results mostly beat estimates, and the companies that supply the AI build-out fell first.
Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.7% at 7:06 a.m.
Meta raised its spending floor and Lam Research beat. Chip and AI stocks fell anyway. Meta lifted the low end of its 2026 spending range to $135 billion. Lam reported record revenue of $8.22 billion, up 54% from a year earlier.
Lam Research (LRCX) was down almost 8% in premarket trading. Meta (META) was down about 1.5%.
IBM raised its cash outlook and rose 7% after hours. Then its CEO described clients worried about AI spending. Chief Executive Arvind Krishna described clients worried about AI spending, according to accounts of the call. They wonder if some of it is "completely out of control with no real return," he said. IBM (IBM) was down about 4% to 5% premarket.
Results Beat, the Bill Didn't
The AI trade had treated bigger budgets as orders for its suppliers. Overnight, Meta raised its spending floor and Lam posted record revenue, and the suppliers fell anyway. On the same night, IBM's chief described clients worried about returns. A bigger budget no longer carried the suppliers on its own.
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Attacks reached a Saudi oil field, and oil kept its overnight gain.
The cushion that kept Gulf oil flowing runs through Saudi Arabia. On Wednesday, the attacks reached one of its oil fields. Saudi Arabia said air defenses intercepted a drone aimed at Aramco's Shaybah oil field. Falling debris killed two people. Operations were not affected, the ministry said. No group has claimed the attack.
The State Department ordered non-emergency staff and their families out of Saudi Arabia.
Kpler data showed Gulf crude exports above prewar levels in the week to Oct. 18. Bypass routes, many across Saudi territory, have carried the difference.
Brent was near $112 at 7:06 a.m., up almost 3%. On Wednesday, a similar spike faded within hours.
Explosions near Hormuz knocked up to 21.5 points off Iran ceasefire contracts. Polymarket's Oct. 24 contract fell from 93.5 cents to 72 cents on Wednesday afternoon. It was back at 88.5 cents by 5:33 a.m. The contracts settle on a qualifying U.S. strike on Iranian territory. Attacks on Saudi Arabia do not count.
The Bypass Became a Target
Oil's calm had rested on Gulf exports that topped prewar levels last week. Much of that oil moves across Saudi territory, and Wednesday's drone reached a Saudi field. Supply was untouched, by the ministry's account, yet Brent held its gain this time. The risk now sits on the routes around the strait as well as the strait itself.
Oil rose and bonds rallied with it, except in France.
Brent climbed 3% overnight and Treasuries rallied anyway. In this conflict, oil spikes have usually pushed yields up. The 10-year yield slipped to about 5.09% in early European trading, from Wednesday's 5.13% close. Gold fell 1.1%.
French borrowing costs rose while global bonds rallied. France's 10-year yield touched 5.06%, its highest since 2002. Its premium over German debt hit 164 basis points, the widest since 2011, LSEG data show. Moody's is scheduled to review France's rating on Friday.
Bonds Bought Growth Fears
Bond buyers broke the war's usual pattern overnight. Brent rose, and the 10-year yield fell instead of climbing with it. Gold slipped too, so the bid read as a hedge against slower growth rather than inflation. France was the exception, paying more while the havens rallied.
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Meta created a new stock it plans to sell, and Tesla cut what it will spend.
Meta says it will sell its new non-voting stock. Once a new charter takes effect Jan. 19, 2027, holders will get one Class C share for each share they own. Meta said it "expects to conduct offerings of Class C common stock from time to time."
Entities tied to Mark Zuckerberg approved it by written consent, so no meeting will be held. Meta's free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion for the quarter.
Tesla beat on profit and cut its 2026 spending plan to about $20 billion. The prior plan was more than $25 billion. Its finance chief said spending would be funded mainly from operating cash flow. Operating income still fell 56%.
Tesla (TSLA) was down almost 4% premarket.
Two Ways to Pay
The cost of the AI build-out is changing how big companies fund it. Meta, with free cash flow negative, set up a share class it expects to sell. Tesla went the other way, cutting its plan and saying operations would fund most of it. One is widening its funding base, and the other is shrinking the bill.
Fund buying ran for three days, and bitcoin still fell with tech futures.
Bitcoin was near $82,000 at 7:06 a.m., and ether was just above $2,400.
Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.08 billion in three days. Bitcoin still fell back to its 50-day average. U.S. spot bitcoin funds took in about $528 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue data.
Bitcoin held between about $84,000 and $84,850 through Wednesday afternoon. It fell in the evening as Asian markets opened, to about $81,730 by 5:32 a.m. No crypto-specific catalyst was identified.
Strategy (MSTR) was down about 5% premarket after Wednesday's 7.5% gain.
Kalshi will lend against bitcoin to fund futures margin. Kalshi said its futures clients will be able to borrow against bitcoin, ether and compliant stablecoins at BitGo. The cash can serve as margin for perpetual futures on Kalshi's exchange. The same coin can then back both a loan and a futures position.
Flows Lost to Futures
Three days of fund inflows did not set bitcoin's floor. The coin held its range while U.S. buyers were active, then slid with Asian tech stocks overnight. Kalshi's loans will add a way to stack two layers of exposure on one coin.
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Thursday morning priced who pays for AI and for the Gulf war.
Meta raised its spending floor with free cash flow already negative, then set up a stock it expects to sell. Tesla cut its plan instead. AI's suppliers fell premarket, while IBM's chief described clients worried about returns. The spending is still rising, but the funding now carries the story.
A drone reached a Saudi field on the routes that kept oil moving around Hormuz. Brent held its gain this time, yet Treasuries rallied and gold slipped. Markets read the oil shock as a threat to growth, and French yields still rose.
Bitcoin followed tech futures lower after three days of fund buying. Kalshi's loans will let one coin back two positions.
Across the morning, money kept flowing into AI budgets and bitcoin funds. Neither lifted the assets built on it.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
We traced three: IBKR, WRB and FIS. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
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