Bloomberg reports one or more investors piled into a long-duration ETF Tuesday, a day before the Treasury announcement. WSJ frames Bessent as "America's bond trader in chief." CNBC frames the move as pressure on Warsh's Fed. The US-Canada deal cuts steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% and auto tariffs to 15%. OpenAI told employees it plans a 2027 IPO.
One hundred and twenty-three million.
Record inflows into the Pimco 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF on Tuesday per Bloomberg. That is one day before Treasury announced the accelerated buyback. Trading volume jumped to 5.2 million shares, almost double the previous peak set in 2024. The ETF's bond holdings have an effective duration of about 28 years. The fund posted a 3.2% gain on Wednesday, its biggest rally since November 2024.
A record $123 million went into the most rate-sensitive long-bond fund Tuesday.
A day later Bessent doubled the buyback.
The 30-year fell 9 basis points to 5.19%.
WSJ calls Bessent America's bond trader in chief. CNBC calls it pressure on the Fed.
The US-Canada deal cuts metals to 25%, autos to 15%.
OpenAI told staff it lists in 2027, or sooner. Anthropic is first in line.
Hudson River Trading had a record quarter. Jane Street lost $15 billion.
PMD LENS
Yesterday afternoon's letter tracked the buyback. It said the buyback shifts the maturity rather than the debt. This morning names what moved before the announcement. A record inflow landed in that fund one day early. The Jackson Hole question moves from the rate path to who sets the long end.
Fast Movers or Steady Earners? Nuclear Has Both
Not every investor wants the same thing from nuclear stocks.
Some want high-growth momentum tied to uranium prices.
Others prefer steadier revenue backed by long-term contracts and infrastructure spending.
Our analysts took a balanced approach in a FREE report — pairing both in one list.
7 Top Nuclear Stocks to Buy Now highlights companies positioned to benefit as nuclear demand accelerates into 2026 and beyond.
Download your free copy today before it moves behind the paywall.
- Bessent spent 2024 attacking the policy that now pays for his intervention. He said Yellen's bill-heavy issuing eased financial conditions on purpose.
- Fractile is raising at six times its May price. Anthropic has an initial deal for $250 million of chips.
- Three SpaceX (SPCX) alumni raised at a $13 billion valuation. JPMorgan (JPM) co-led the round in hypersonics startup Castelion.
- Blue Apron is shipping incomplete orders. A supply chain that took years to build is changing hands in under 10 weeks.
- Cognition denies SpaceX approached it. Nobody denies the compute talks.
Bessent Doubled the Long-Duration Buyback Wednesday Morning.
Bond Traders Piled Into a Long-Duration ETF Tuesday. WSJ Frames Bessent as "America's Bond Trader in Chief." CNBC Frames the Move as Pressure on the Fed to Support Fiscal Policy.
The Day Before
A record $123 million landed in the Pimco long-bond ETF on Tuesday. Volume ran to 5.2 million shares. The fund holds stripped Treasury principal. A one-point fall in yields lifts it about 28%. One day later the buyback landed. The fund gained 3.2%.
The Line
Bessent doubled the long-end buyback to at least $4 billion an operation. The window runs to November 4. The 30-year fell 9 basis points. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research revised his own line. "Bond traders can stop panicking when Scott Bessent starts panicking." Natixis puts the run rate near $128 billion a year. That is close to 30% of expected issuance.
What Pays for It
Treasury cannot print, so it funds buybacks by selling bills. Brij Khurana of Wellington names that trade. Bills are already 22.2% of the debt. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee wants about 20%. Treasury's own view is that issuance sets the profile, not buybacks. The long end gets defended with front-end supply.
Support, Not a Target
The tape took the 9 basis points and moved on. Treasury's own release calls this liquidity support, not a yield target. The gap is a backstop the market read as a floor. Private marks running past 2030 discount off that curve either way. A close back above 5.31% by Jackson Hole would price the defence as spent.
The current economic chaos is just a preview …
What's coming next could be way scarier.
That's according to a strange investment secret - discovered just before the Great Depression…
And it's likely to catch most Americans by surprise.
If you're retired or planning to retire …
If you have any kind of money in the stock market …
Click here to learn more - before it's too late!
11780 US Highway 1,
Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33408-3080
Would you like to edit your e-mail notification preferences or unsubscribe from our mailing list?
Copyright © 2025 Weiss Ratings. All rights reserved.
SIGNAL 1: The Wall Comes Down by Half
A 50% tariff is a moat. Washington is close to halving it for one country.
The tentative deal takes Canadian steel and aluminum to 25%. Autos drop to 15%. It will not apply across the board. Derivative products may keep the old 50%, which US fabricators want. Algoma Steel (ASTL) rose 16.6% in Toronto. Nucor (NUE) fell 5.9%. Century Aluminum (CENX) fell 4.6%.
No mill opened. No mill closed. A number moved and the moat repriced.
The Renegotiated Moat
Public steel repriced inside a day. Private marks carry the old wall until the next valuation. The distance is a protection that was never structural. It is a policy variable with exclusions still on the table. If Washington and Ottawa sign by Friday's deadline, the wall becomes a schedule.
SIGNAL 2: The First Print Sets Everyone's Mark
OpenAI told staff it will be a public company in 2027, or sooner. Anthropic could go this fall.
Both filed confidentially in June. Anthropic aims for this fall, six to nine months ahead. OpenAI grew 18% last quarter to $6.7 billion. Its operating loss widened to $12.3 billion. Anthropic more than doubled to $11.6 billion. It booked adjusted operating income.
Whoever prints first sets the public multiple.
The Reference Price
Private AI marks come off private rounds, because no listed peer exists. Anthropic's print would create one. Nothing in today's marks carries that. The gap is a multiple nobody has had to defend in public. Should Anthropic price by September 30, every AI mark gets a public cross-check.
SIGNAL 3: The Bid Has a Balance Sheet
Hudson River Trading booked a record $11.4 billion quarter. It made money in July. Jane Street lost $15 billion that month, its first in a decade.
Same tape, same weeks. HRT told debtholders it had no exposure to Situational Awareness. Jane Street's loss came partly from its stake there. Both fund themselves with debt and run slower strategies too.
The line between market maker, proprietary trader and hedge fund has blurred.
The Exit Rail
Nobody underwrites a market maker as a principal. The tape reads them as infrastructure and stops. What it leaves out is the debt-funded book underneath. An exit needs a bid from firms holding the risk a seller wants out of. A second July loss surfacing before September ends would make this a liquidity question.
Louis: The "Strawberry Problem" Is Stalling the AI Revolution
Billion-dollar tech investor Louis Navellier calls it "AI's darkest secret." Until AI models solve the "Strawberry Problem," they'll never create new breakthroughs in medicine, energy, or quantum computing. The good news? One company is about to solve the crisis… unleashing a new $100 trillion opportunity.
This ad is sent on behalf of InvestorPlace Media at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, please click here.
- Today, the Philadelphia Fed index and jobless claims. Walmart reports.
- Tomorrow, the August flash PMI. The Canadian tariff pause expires.
- August 27, Jackson Hole.
- September 9, the enlarged buyback sizes take effect.
- September 15-16, FOMC.
- November 4, the next quarterly refunding.
Capital Discipline
Private discount rates come off the long end. Since Wednesday that end has a defender with a budget and a review date. A defender is not a buyer who has to show up.
Take your longest-dated hold before the next valuation. Find the rate its exit assumption discounts off. Re-run it at Monday's 5.31% close, where the long end sat before Treasury stepped in. If it still clears, you own the asset. If it clears only at yesterday's 5.19%, you own the buyback. Treasury resets its size on November 4.
Monday named the hidden obligation. Tuesday named the break at 5.311%. Wednesday morning tracked Anthropic's acceleration. The afternoon carried the first policy response. This morning names the money that moved before it.
Two tests land inside eight days. Walmart (WMT) today. Jackson Hole opens August 27.
The open question is whether Warsh argues for a Treasury accord from that podium. He has argued for one before. Never with Treasury already in the market.