The Reserve Bank's move to a 15-year high adds a global dimension to a week already stacked with American releases.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.60% on Tuesday, the highest in 15 years. The decision lands in the middle of a global tightening scare that has already carried the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 5.25%, its highest since 2007.
The Australian dollar barely reacted, edging up to $0.7020. The muted response suggests the hike was widely anticipated, but it still matters as a signal. A developed-market central bank choosing to tighten into rising global yields reinforces the idea that inflation, not growth, remains the priority for policymakers.
A rough Asian session
Regional equities took the brunt of the pressure overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.35% to 64,988, South Korea's Kospi lost 1.07% to 6,816 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.95% to 24,409. Mainland China and Australia held close to flat, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.03% and the ASX 200 off 0.11%.
The pattern is telling. The markets that fell hardest are the ones most tied to global technology supply chains and dollar funding. The ones that held steady are more domestically driven. The yen weakened slightly, with the dollar at 157.51.
The U.S. calendar
U.S. stock futures pointed lower before the open, with S&P 500 contracts down 0.26%, Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.44% and Russell 2000 futures down 0.41%. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,688.12, 1.3% below its record.
Three releases arrive Tuesday: the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index around 9 a.m., then Conference Board consumer confidence and August JOLTS job openings at 10 a.m. The August PCE price index follows Wednesday, alongside a GDP update, and September payrolls land Friday. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Wednesday, the week's biggest test for chip stocks.
Why the sequence matters
Job openings are the first read on whether labor demand is cooling enough to take pressure off the Fed. A soft JOLTS print followed by a firm PCE reading would leave policymakers facing the uncomfortable mix of slowing hiring and sticky prices. Kalshi traders currently put the odds of an October rate hike at 68%.
The measure to watch Tuesday is the labor differential inside the consumer confidence survey, the gap between respondents who say jobs are plentiful and those who say they are hard to get. It tends to lead the unemployment rate and will shape how markets read Friday's payrolls.