ASML says its planned supply won't fully meet demand in 2027-28. Blackstone's AirTrunk has put off a big listing. Two banks backed only a quarter of an AI loan. Bumble's insiders approved its sale with no public vote.
$1.3 billion.
That is how much of a $5 billion AI loan two banks underwrote, reports said Monday. JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) did not underwrite the other $3.7 billion. That part pays for about 36,000 Nvidia chips for Volta, an AI cloud startup. The loan has no rating. It is marketed near 11%. Lenders must commit by 5 p.m. Wednesday. The two banks underwrote about a quarter of it.
7 Stocks That Could Become the Market’s Next Giants
Apple, Google, Tesla…
Sure, they’re household names now, but these companies and the other members of the original Magnificent 7 didn’t start out obvious.
They earned their place over time.
Our analysts believe the next generation of market leaders is forming now…
And we’ve identified the 7 companies that fit the “Magnificent” pattern.
You can see the full list for free today
Don’t wait until everyone’s talking about them.
- Bonds rallied Tuesday as the cash market reopened. The 10-year yield closed at 5.21%.
- Citigroup's chief called it the best third-quarter revenue in a decade. Citigroup (C) still closed down 5.6%.
- Bank of America (BAC) earned 91 cents a share, it said early Wednesday. That includes a $1.2 billion charge for Treasury fines, about 17 cents a share. Its net interest income rose 8% from a year ago.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) earned $3.03 a share on $20.3 billion of revenue, it said. BlackRock also reported early Wednesday. CPI posts at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
AI's Toolmaker Says Demand Will Outrun Its Planned Supply. The Money for Data Centers Wants More.
Yesterday, PMD named ASML as one of the first reads on whether money is AI's limit. The answer came early Wednesday. ASML said its planned supply "will not fully meet the demand of our customers." That covers 2027 and 2028. Some customers want to order as far out as 2030. Their demand rests mainly on how big and how long they expect AI spending to be. Sales hit a record last quarter.
The money for the buildings is moving the other way. Blackstone's AirTrunk has put off a Singapore listing, people familiar with the plans said. It hoped to raise about $1.5 billion. It had weighed a payout near 6%, half a point more than first planned. The Fed's September hike, and the chance of more, kept investors wary, the people said. The new target is early next year.
Firmus dropped its own listing last week. Banks are choosier too. "We're tightening up a little bit on credit," Jamie Dimon said Tuesday. Some credit terms have gotten "a little bit loose," he said. "We just don't feel like we have to chase that kind of stuff anymore."
Demand Is Booked. The Financing Is Not.
For owners of AI builders and their lenders, ASML's orders say customers still plan to spend. The open question is who pays for the buildings and chips, and at what price. If listings stay shut, owners like Blackstone (BX) may hold assets longer or sell them privately. Volta's final terms are the first read. TSMC reports Thursday.
The REAL Reason Trump Is Invading Iran
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason.
Click here to find out what it is.
If you have even a single dollar invested in the U.S. stock market, this is going to directly impact you.
SIGNAL 1: Bumble's Insiders Approved Its Sale With No Public Vote. Character.AI's $20 Million Bid Is for a License.
Yesterday, PMD said a signed deal would show whether Bumble's price includes its debt. Bumble (BMBL) signed with Ithaca Holdings at $6.05 a share in cash. It put the deal's value at $1.3 billion, but did not say if that counts its debt. Blackstone affiliates and founder Whitney Wolfe Herd then signed a written consent. That gave the deal the vote it needs, so other holders get none. The shares closed Tuesday just below the offer.
Character.AI filed for bankruptcy with a $20 million stalking-horse bid from Disney. The bid is for a license to some of its intellectual property, not the company. No bid to keep the platform running has surfaced, its chief said. Without one, the platform will close. Backers put in more than $193 million, PitchBook data show.
What resolves this: Bumble's filings will show how the price was set. Character.AI's bid deadline will show whether anyone bids to keep the platform running.
SIGNAL 2: A Fed Governor Tied High Yields to Growth, Not Inflation. CPI Is the First Test.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday that inflation expectations are "well anchored." He said the rise in yields "is a factor of real growth." He cited research that a lost safe-haven status for Treasuries could cost "50 to 70 basis points." The Fed's own rate is "not driving the 10-year yield much," he said. AI spending could support demand for two or three more years, he added.
Event traders moved the other way. Kalshi's October hike contract rose Tuesday from 17 cents to as high as 22 cents. It is a thin market. Buyer-led trades through early afternoon came to about $10,000. LSEG's fed funds pricing put the odds near 19%. Forecasts call for core prices to rise 0.2% from August.
What resolves this: A tame core reading would back Waller's case. A hot one could put an October hike back in play.
SIGNAL 3: Diesel Jumped 4.7% as Brent Slipped. Then an Aramco Building in Dhahran Was Targeted.
Diesel futures jumped Tuesday, days after Washington licensed Russian diesel. They settled 4.7% higher, near $4.94 a gallon. Brent slipped 0.9%. On front-month futures, diesel's gap over Brent was the widest since Sept. 22.
Energy futures settled before most reports from Dhahran. Late Tuesday, an Aramco office building there was targeted, Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said. It reported a limited fire and no injuries. It gave no details on damage or on Aramco's operations. The Houthis had named Aramco's headquarters as a target that morning.
What resolves this: The IEA's board meets Thursday on more diesel releases. Aramco's own account of the damage comes next.
AI CEO Issues Code Red: Prepare for Meltdown
The CEO of this AI company (click here to get the name, 100% free) just issued a CODE RED in an internal memo…
Warning his employees that they’re dealing with a critical situation.
Another company executive even implied they might need a government bailout.
And now Jim Rickards is predicting this company is about to go bust, in a full-blown AI meltdown that could be 10 times bigger than Lehman Brothers.
- Blur will shut its NFT marketplace website on Nov. 12. Its lending service stops making new loans that day. Open loans must be repaid, or they default. Korea's largest crypto exchange flagged the token for review.
- Goldman bought back $3 billion of its stock last quarter. It paid about 18% more per share, on average, than Tuesday's close.
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
AI demand is booked years out. The money to build, and to exit, is setting tougher terms.
Waller's remarks suggest a loop. He tied high long-term yields to real growth. Separately, he said AI spending could support demand for two or three more years. If both hold, the boom may be adding to the cost of its own funding. That would land first on buildings and chips, like AirTrunk's trust and Volta's loan. In buyouts, the holders with control set the exit, as at Bumble. Wednesday's CPI and Volta's final price are the next reads on what that money costs.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Wed., Oct. 14
September CPI, 8:30 a.m.; Volta loan commitments due, 5 p.m.
Thu., Oct. 15
TSMC reports; PPI and retail sales; IEA board meets; G20 finance chiefs meet in Bangkok
Fri., Oct. 16
Service Properties Trust (SVC) bid deadline, 5 p.m.
Mon., Oct. 19
Ithaca's $102 million Bumble escrow due
Oct. 27-28
Fed meeting
3 STOCKS OUR SIGNAL ENGINE SAYS TO WATCH CAREFULLY
Three stocks. Three signals. Two weeks later, the story changed.
On September 2, we published three market questions around KLAC, HPE and PG&E.
Two weeks later, every one of them produced new evidence.
One company delivered record revenue and raised its outlook.
Another saw weakness spread across its entire peer group.
And in the third, a market risk that had only been showing up beneath the surface suddenly became explicit.
Yet none of these stories is finished.
That’s why we built Market Tell.
To track the signals that keep moving after the headline is gone — and show you what investors should be watching next.
We’ve put the latest analysis into a new FREE Special Report:
3 Stocks at a Major Turning Point
See what changed… what still hasn’t been resolved… and the signals we’re watching now.