Ares Capital agreed to buy an Apollo-managed fund for about 15% less than its stated value. Boeing's backlog hit $745 billion, and its stock fell about 11%. Consumer confidence jumped while households still expect 5.8% inflation.
Chipmakers Led Again as Boeing Hit a 52-Week Low
Stocks rose on Tuesday, and chipmakers led for a second day. The S&P 500 closed up about 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite about 1.2%. The Dow was roughly flat as Boeing (BA) fell about 11%.
AMD (AMD) rose about 5% after saying it would put $1 billion into Meta Platforms' (META) stock sale. Meta closed at about $620, below its $625 offer price.
General Motors (GM) gained about 5.6% after saying it will move its listing to Nasdaq on Nov. 17, which makes it eligible for possible Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Its market value rose about $3.6 billion with no change to its cars or forecasts. Ford rose about 1.3%, so roughly $2.8 billion of GM's gain went beyond its rival's move.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 2% and ended the session near $100 a barrel. The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at 4.845%, and bids covered the sale 2.33 times. Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000.
Investor Signal
Tuesday's biggest moves came from the distance between a headline and what sits beneath it. GM gained value on eligibility for an index it has not joined, and Boeing lost value despite record orders. Buyers took five-year notes readily a day before the Fed decides. A Fed statement that points toward a December hike would test whether that demand holds.
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Ares Capital Agreed to Buy an Apollo Fund at 30% Above Monday's Close. That Is Still About 15% Below Book.
Ares Capital (ARCC) agreed to buy MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC), a business development company managed by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management (APO). The companies valued the cash-and-stock deal at about $2.6 billion including debt.
Each MFIC share gets $1.21 in cash, paid by a subsidiary of Ares Management (ARES), plus about $9.67 of Ares Capital stock. That $10.88 headline is 30.1% above Monday's close. It is also about 15% below MFIC's preliminary Sept. 30 net asset value of about $12.86 a share.
The stock portion is counted at Ares Capital's net asset value of $19.31 a share, but its shares closed at about 96% of that. At Tuesday's close the package was worth about $10.48. MFIC closed at $10.26, up about 23%. The deal needs MFIC holders' approval and is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
Investor Signal
The stock market valued MFIC at about 65% of its stated net asset value on Monday. A rival lender then agreed to a headline price of about 85%. The gap suggests public investors still price private loans below the managers' own marks. MFIC reports its final net asset value on Nov. 5. A lower figure would shrink the discount without changing what holders receive.
Boeing's Backlog Hit a Record $745 Billion. Its Airplane Unit Still Lost Money.
Boeing (BA) reported third-quarter revenue of $24.19 billion, up 4% and above forecasts. Its core loss of 34 cents a share was wider than the 21-cent loss analysts expected.
The commercial airplane unit posted a negative 6.5% operating margin. Boeing cited its delivery mix and higher expected production and supply-chain costs. The defense unit's margin rose to 6.2%, helped by a $252 million gain on a lab sale. Without that gain, it would have been about 3%.
Free cash flow was $464 million, a second straight positive quarter. The stock fell about 11% and hit a 52-week low.
Investor Signal
Orders are not Boeing's problem, but building planes at a profit is. The 737 is still working toward a steady 47 a month, and news reports said Boeing does not plan a significant increase until late 2027. Higher output spreads fixed costs, so the commercial margin likely depends on that timing. Fourth-quarter cash flow and any update on the production rate are the next tests.
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Consumers Felt Better on Cheaper Gas. They Still Expect 5.8% Inflation.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, its best level since June. Economists had expected 81. The group tied the rebound to lower gasoline prices and said confidence remains on a long-term downward trend.
Expected inflation over the next 12 months eased but stayed at 5.8%, and consumers still expect interest rates to rise.
Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September, mostly on aircraft. Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense, rose a more modest 0.5%.
Investor Signal
The rebound rests on gasoline, which ties household mood to oil prices. The 5.8% inflation figure can matter more for rates than the jump in confidence, because expected inflation can feed into wages and pricing. Bond yields barely moved, suggesting the data did not change expectations for a December hike. Thursday's third-quarter GDP and September price data are the next test.
Polymarket Bet on Turnout. Exit Polls Put Likud First.
Israelis voted Tuesday with turnout running at its highest level in decades, according to the elections committee. During the day, the Polymarket contract on Gadi Eisenkot becoming prime minister rose to about 63 cents from about 55 cents.
Exit polls then showed Netanyahu's Likud as the largest party, with 25 seats to 21 for Eisenkot's Yashar in the public broadcaster's poll. The bloc opposing Netanyahu was projected to win more seats, 53 to 50, but neither side reached the 61 needed to govern.
Eisenkot's contract fell to about 53 cents after the polls, below where it started the day. Netanyahu's was about 25.5 cents.
Investor Signal
The turnout trade unwound within minutes of the first real data. Eisenkot is still the favorite because his bloc is projected to be larger, but the contract pays on who is sworn in, and that depends on coalition talks. News reports say Netanyahu has pushed for renewed strikes on Iran, which he has denied. A long coalition process could leave that question open for weeks.
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Ripple Signed Robinhood and BNY. Europe Has Already Moved to USDC.
Ripple signed two partners for RLUSD, its dollar stablecoin, a day after its trust bank charter. RLUSD is live on Robinhood Markets' (HOOD) blockchain and Bitstamp exchange, and is expected in the Robinhood app later this year. BNY (BK) now holds XRP and RLUSD in custody and intends to let clients mint and redeem the token through the bank.
RLUSD has a market value of about $2.4 billion. Robinhood rose about 2% during the session. After the close, it reported record revenue of $1.42 billion, up 12%, and adjusted earnings of 60 cents a share.
In Europe, Circle's USDC now makes up 56% of stablecoin trading against the euro, up from 10% in January 2024, according to Kaiko. Coinbase (COIN) will convert European customers' remaining Tether and other non-compliant tokens into USDC on Friday. Circle (CRCL) rose about 2%.
Investor Signal
Regulation and distribution, more than technology, are deciding which dollar tokens win. Euro trading shifted toward USDC in under three years as Europe's rules took hold. Ripple is now building bank and broker channels for a token worth about $2.4 billion. Circle's report on Nov. 4 will show how much of that shift reaches revenue.
On Tuesday, headline numbers and underlying value kept pointing in different directions. Ares agreed to a premium that still sat below the fund's own stated value. Boeing's record backlog came with a loss in the unit that builds the planes. Polymarket traders read record turnout one way, and the exit polls read it another.
Wednesday brings the Fed's decision, and with it a read on whether 5.8% expected inflation outweighs consumers' better mood.
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