Adjusted earnings of $1.82 a share topped the $1.51 forecast, and revenue of $3.70 billion fell short of $3.77 billion. Year over year the quarter looks strong; quarter over quarter, shipments, adjusted profit and revenue slipped, although reported net income rose.
Alcoa's third quarter reads as a beat or a slowdown depending on which comparison you pick.
The aluminum producer reported adjusted earnings of $1.82 a share, well above the $1.51 consensus. Earnings on a reported basis were $1.81 a share, up from $1.53 in the second quarter, and net income attributable to Alcoa rose to $483 million from $407 million. Revenue was $3.70 billion, about 1.7% below the $3.77 billion consensus.
Shares rose 1.4% to $41.00 in after-hours trading Thursday from a close of $40.42, and were quoted slightly higher in thin overnight trading.
Two comparisons
Against last year, the quarter was strong. Revenue rose 24% from $3.0 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
Against the second quarter, the adjusted figures were weaker. Revenue fell 7% from $3.97 billion. Adjusted earnings per share dropped from $2.12. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $789 million, down from $901 million. Aluminum shipments fell 5% sequentially, which the company attributed to elevated second-quarter shipments tied to inventory repositioning in the first quarter. Production rose 2%, and Alcoa expects higher production and shipments in both segments in the fourth quarter.
That pattern, up sharply on the year and down on the quarter on an adjusted basis, could mean Alcoa is past a near-term peak, though the company's own explanation for the shipment dip points to timing rather than demand. Revenue missed even as profit beat, and the release points to both lower shipments and pricing as factors in the revenue decline.
Cash and the deal
Cash generation was solid. Operating cash flow was $643 million and free cash flow $472 million. Alcoa declared a quarterly dividend of 10 cents a share, payable Nov. 13.
Management's focus was on operations and its pending acquisition. "[W]e advanced the AliGroup acquisition, delivered improved refinery performance, and increased production across our smelting portfolio," Chief Executive William Oplinger said. The company is working toward closing the AliGroup deal in the first half of 2027.
The backdrop
The after-hours gain is small against the stock's recent history. Alcoa shares have fallen about 43% over the past six months, which set a low bar for the report.
Market implications
One reading is that Alcoa is managing a softer patch well. Earnings beat by a wide margin, free cash flow was strong, refinery performance improved and smelting output rose, with an acquisition ahead to add scale.
A second reading is that the trend has turned. Revenue, shipments, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share all declined from the second quarter, revenue fell short of forecasts, and the profit beat came against estimates set after a six-month slide in the stock.
What to watch
Commentary on the call about fourth-quarter shipments and aluminum pricing, the regulatory path for AliGroup, and whether Friday's regular session confirms the after-hours gain. If fourth-quarter shipments fail to rise as guided, the slowdown reading gains weight.