After-Hours Selling Eased by Morning | Oil Kept Climbing.

Treasuries Got the Haven Bid. Gold and Bitcoin Didn't.

The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Thursday, its worst day since June. The S&P 500 lost 1.2%, while the Dow was flat.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.96%, down 17 basis points and below 5% for the first time since September. Brent posted its highest close since May on the same day. A five-year TIPS sale drew its weakest demand since April 2025, though real yields fell about as much as nominal ones.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds swung to $636 million of outflows, the most since June 25, a day after $528 million of inflows. Gold slipped again early Friday, to about $4,044. Reports tied its slide to bets that expensive oil keeps interest rates high.

Market Implication

Bonds and gold are reading the same oil price in opposite ways. Treasuries rallied as if crude is a drag on growth, while gold fell on the view that crude keeps rates high. Bitcoin funds had their biggest outflow since June under either reading. If oil keeps rising and yields keep falling, the growth reading is winning the argument.

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The After-Hours Verdict Softened Overnight

Western Digital (WDC) guided earnings about 20% above forecasts. The stock rose 4%, then fell more than 8% during the call as management laid out higher capital spending. Early Friday it was indicated about 4% lower.

Bloom Energy (BE) raised its forecast for a third time after sales rose 138%. It slid 5% to 7% after hours and was indicated about 3% lower.

RingCentral (RNG) raised its profit and free-cash-flow forecasts and was indicated about 15% higher. Deckers (DECK) cut its sales forecast, and tariff refunds account for all of its profit raise. It was indicated about 8% lower.

Structural Setup

Last night we said supplier beats would keep getting sold if Meta’s credit protection widened. The beat got sold, for a different reason: Western Digital’s own capital budget, not its buyers’ funding. The market would not credit Meta’s spending in the session, then would not credit a 20% guidance beat that needs new spending behind it. RingCentral and Deckers brought news about cash and sales, not spending, and their moves held. If Western Digital opens near its overnight level, capex is a cost to price rather than a reason to dump the stock.

SpaceX Went Looking for Towers. Telecom Split in Two.

SpaceX (SPCX) is seeking space on at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites for a wireless network and is in talks with Crown Castle, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Crown Castle (CCI) was indicated about 9% higher. AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) were indicated about 5% lower. The carriers are the tower companies' biggest tenants.

In private markets, OpenAI is close to raising up to $30 billion at $1.25 trillion before the new money, reports say, down from $1.4 trillion under discussion. Counting the new money, that is still roughly 50% above its March round.

Sector Read

One report delivered a new tenant and a new competitor at once. Landlords were marked up for the tenant and carriers were marked down for the competitor, yet the carriers pay most of the landlords' rent. That makes the tower rally a bet on carrier health as much as on signed leases. If carriers keep sliding while towers hold their gains, the market is valuing SpaceX's rent above the strain on the tenants who pay the bills.

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Oil Priced the Gulf. The White House Ruled Out a Pre-Election Strike.

Brent rose 4% to settle at $113.17 on Thursday, its highest close since May, as Houthi forces claimed new attacks on Saudi targets. It traded near $114.60 early Friday.

The White House said Thursday that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Polymarket's contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holding through Oct. 24 rose to 92.5 cents from 86.5 cents. Every October contract in that series settles before the vote.

President Trump also declared domestic oil production and refining essential to national defense. The Energy Department said it would provide up to $150 million to expand refinery output.

Watch Signal

The pledge took a U.S. strike off the near-term table, and oil climbed anyway. Crude rose alongside attacks on Saudi targets, a risk no ceasefire contract settles on. A $150 million refinery program addresses capacity, not this week's barrels. If Brent holds above $113 while the October contracts drift toward a dollar, the oil premium is about Gulf supply, not U.S.-Iran escalation.

Moderna Cleared the Bar. Investors Wanted More.

Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) said their melanoma vaccine cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% in a Phase 3 trial, a hazard ratio of 0.58. That sits inside every threshold analysts had published, though RBC called it the low end of what investors hoped for. The stock fell 17.6%, erasing about $17 billion.

Two details cut against the headline. For six months, the two arms were indistinguishable, with a hazard ratio of 0.99, before a pre-specified sensitivity analysis showed 0.42 after that. And protection against distant spread fell short of the earlier, smaller trial.

Early Friday the shares were indicated near $195. Full data are presented Saturday.

The Read

The result cleared the bar, but the market had priced something closer to the smaller trial. A benefit that shows up only after six months, a weaker distant-spread result and a low-end hazard ratio each widened that gap. Thursday's selling priced the gap, not a failed trial. If Saturday's presentation shows the late benefit holding, the flat first six months become a feature of how the vaccine works rather than a flaw.

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Economic Data: S&P Global flash PMIs for October. The composite is forecast at 57.6, from 58.4.

Earnings: American Express (AXP) beat on adjusted earnings but missed slightly on revenue and was indicated about 2% lower. SLB (SLB) beat on both and was little changed. Verizon (VZ) reports Monday.

Overnight: Kospi -2.80% | Nikkei -0.34% | Shanghai +0.89% | FTSE -0.55% | DAX -0.78%

After the bell, sellers hit beat-and-raise reports, and by morning much of that selling had eased.

Oil kept climbing even after the White House ruled out a pre-election strike.

The cleanest test is the open. If Western Digital and Bloom hold their overnight levels while Brent stays above $113, Thursday's stock selling was a reflex. Oil's climb was not.